尹锡悦会踩缝纫机吗？韩国总统的狱中生活是怎么过的？

问：尹锡悦会马上坐牢吗？

答：不会，只要他在总统的位置上，他就不会坐牢，必须等到他因弹劾或者辞职、任满等原因离开总统职位。所以他坐牢的概率不小，马上坐牢的概率很小。

问：韩国总统尹锡悦会被弹劾下台吗？

答：目前韩国反对党已经提出了弹劾案，12月7日将对此进行表决。但反对党只有191个议席，通过弹劾案需要200票赞成，所以必须要有8个执政党议员倒戈才能通过。

我个人认为，弹劾通过的概率不大。反对戒严是韩国的“政治正确”，执政党议员就算心里窃喜，也不会公然出来支持戒严。但是弹劾尹锡悦的性质等同把总统交椅交给了在野的“进步阵营”对手。连尹锡悦的政敌、和在野党联手解除戒严的韩国执政党国民力量党首韩东勋都明确表态，反对弹劾。

 执政党代表韩东勋，近期民调显示，他支持率不如李在明，因此尹马上下台对他不是好事。

问：为什么执政党在戒严问题上反对尹锡悦，却不愿意拉他下马？

答：有保守势力大佬议员讲出了关键问题：如果连续两个保守阵营的总统被弹劾下台（朴槿惠、尹锡悦），那么保守阵营三十年内都不可能再染指总统席位了。

正因为如此，谴责尹锡悦、划清界线的执政党议员很多，毕竟这样对他们的声望很有好处。但是要他们亲手把尹锡悦拉下台，可能性很小。所以韩东勋提出的是让尹锡悦自行退党，而非弹劾。让韩自己来收拾残局（竞选下任总统）。

反尹对大部分人都有利，但是倒尹就不一定了。

尹锡悦当总统前是政治素人，是国民力量党拉回来的“雇佣兵”总统，逼迫他退党也不会动摇党内根基。但是党内倒戈闹分裂就不一样了。

我们可以横向对比，当年投票赞成弹劾特朗普的10名共和党众议员，其中4人主动退休，另外4人被特朗普派的人打败，只有2人继续担任议员。

虽然尹锡悦远远不如特朗普有人气，但是弹劾朴槿惠后，保守阵营依然惨败的教训历历在目。

 联手民主党弹劾特朗普的莉兹·切尼被特朗普派候选人打败，赶出了议会。由于伊拉克战争，她父亲前副总统切尼在美国民间声望很低。这种靠父辈才能立足的“官二代”面对真正的人气明星特朗普时，毫无反抗之力。

问：尹锡悦会主动辞职吗？

答：比被弹劾的概率大，比任满五年的概率小。

尹锡悦曾亲手把朴槿惠送进去坐牢，他很清楚其中利弊。对他来说，目前最好的选择是坚持任满五年，或至少等到政治风向对保守阵营有利后再辞职，以此和保守阵营达成换取特赦或者保外就医等幕后交易。

一个重要的观察指标是尹锡悦任命的新国防部长等内阁人选动向，如果连续出现被提名人拒绝提名或者光速辞职，那尹锡悦就可能待不下去了。

 被尹锡悦送进去坐牢，又被尹锡悦特赦出来的朴槿惠，几起几落。

问：韩国总统会去哪里坐牢？

答：李明博关在首尔东部拘留所，朴槿惠关在义王市的首尔南部拘留所。这两地都关押过多位韩国“博姆特”（原意为“老虎的皮”，现指代有钱有势的囚犯）。根据朴槿惠所说，在牢房里偶然能听见支持者在外面的声音。

 朴槿惠被关押的首尔南部拘留所

问：总统一般坐多久牢？

答：根据前两位的经验，尹锡悦被判十年以上的机会很大，不过一般几年后就会保外就医或者特赦。总统是一个对精力和体力消耗很大的职业，进监狱后，以往积累的疲劳和病根容易集中爆发，身体会迅速垮下来。

 健康原因特赦的李明博，并不像重病号

问：总统坐牢有优待吗？

答：有特殊的对待，但是谈不上优待。前总统会关押在10-13平方的单人牢房里（普通犯人是4人共用同样的面积），左右两边的牢房会空着隔离，有10名左右警察24小时轮班监视。

牢房配备电视（据说是外界已经淘汰的大屁股老式型号）、镜子、饭桌兼书桌、储物柜、洗脸池、被褥以及清洁用品等，禁止和任何囚犯接触，牢房内有摄像头24小时监控。

伙食标准是1.3美元一顿，早餐包括面包、番茄酱、奶酪、汤、沙拉和豆浆。午餐是骨头蔬菜汤配米饭、豆芽、泡菜和海带，但是饭菜重辣重油（标准工地大锅饭风，只是肉偏少）自己洗托盘，睡在地板上的折叠床垫上。

失去自由的牢房生活不好受

可以横向对比另一位坐牢的韩国名人李胜利待遇，李胜利入狱后，会收到监狱提供的囚衣、内衣、牙膏、牙刷、香皂和毛巾，自己付钱还可以买到120多种物品，包括银鱼罐头、真空包装的熏鸡、酸奶等食品，而且还有市面上出售的品牌T恤。此外，防晒霜、沐浴乳、睡眠眼罩等美容用品和便利用品也应有尽有，甚至还有各种维生素C、滴眼液、去屑洗发精。

理论上每月消费额度是30万到40万韩元。要购买物品，可以每天提出申请，申请的物品一周发放两次。一天可购买的物品上限为2万韩元。相比之下，朴槿惠在牢里只能买方便面度日。

时代在进步，打螺丝也有可能

大概就是这个结构的牢房

 问：总统真的也要踩缝纫机吗？

答：理论上韩国犯人都会有机会分配这种劳动。但因为近年来坐牢的总统普遍年纪大不适合工作，让他们踩缝纫机还要劳师动众单独分配劳动空间，前总统踩缝纫机出品这种标签还容易落下政治把柄。所以概率非常低。

 问：不踩缝纫机的话，总统在牢里能干嘛？

答：平时看书度日，或者在牢房里来回踱步，每天有45分钟的固定户外放风时间。根据朴槿惠描述，牢房里冬冷夏热，通风和保温性能极差。这是韩国监狱的通病，许多在韩国坐过牢的外国人也抱怨这一点。

最难熬的其实还是单人独处的心理压力和从奢入俭的落差，毕竟韩国总统坐牢分两种，一种是坐牢完再当总统（金大中），穷小子时代坐牢自然顶得住；李明博和朴槿惠这种锦衣玉食沦落阶下囚的最难适应。

 坐牢时的金大中，差点被判死刑

问：尹锡悦坐牢的话，其他坐过牢的总统会暗爽吗？

答：我们直接看被尹锡悦送进监狱的朴槿惠后来怎么说吧。

他对过去的事情表示“真的没脸见您。我一直很抱歉”，而我只是静静地听着。尹锡悦表示，“(朴槿惠政府的)好政策和业绩未能如实公开，我对此感到非常遗憾”“我会继承和广泛宣传前总统朴槿惠所做的事情。我会恢复您的名誉，让您得到国民的正确评价”。

Can Yin Xiyue step on a sewing machine?

 How did the president of South Korea live in prison?

Q: Will Yin Xiyue be imprisoned immediately?

Answer: No, as long as he is in the position of president, he will not go to jail and must wait until he leaves the presidency due to impeachment, resignation, expiration of term, or other reasons.

 So the probability of him going to jail is not small, and the probability of going to jail immediately is very small.

picture

Q: Will South Korean President Yoon Seok yeol be impeached and removed from office?

Answer: Currently, the opposition party in South Korea has proposed an impeachment case, and a vote on it will be held on December 7th.

 But the opposition party only has 191 seats, and 200 votes are needed to pass the impeachment case, so 8 ruling party members must defect in order to pass it.

I personally think that the probability of impeachment passing is not high.

 Opposing martial law is the "political correctness" of South Korea, and even if ruling party lawmakers are secretly pleased, they will not openly support martial law.

 But the nature of impeaching Yoon Seok yeol is equivalent to handing over the presidency to the opposition's "progressive camp" opponents.

 Even Han Dong hoon, the political opponent of Yoon Seok yeol and the leader of the ruling party, the National Power Party, who joined forces with the opposition to lift martial law, has clearly stated his opposition to impeachment.

According to recent polls, the representative of the ruling party, Han Dongxun, has a lower approval rating than Lee Jae myung, so it is not good for him for Yoon Ma to step down.

Q: Why does the ruling party oppose Yin Xiyue on the issue of martial law but refuse to remove him from office?

Answer: A key issue raised by a conservative lawmaker is that if two consecutive conservative presidents (Park Geun hye and Yoon Suk yeol) are impeached and removed from office, the conservative camp will not be able to touch the presidential seat again for thirty years.

Because of this, there are many ruling party members who condemn Yin Xiyue and draw a clear line, as it is beneficial to their reputation.

 But the possibility of them personally removing Yin Xiyue from power is very small.

 So what Han Dongxun proposed was for Yin Xiyue to resign from the party on her own, rather than impeachment.

 Let Han clean up the mess himself (running for the next president).

The reverse image of Yin is beneficial for most people, but the reverse image of Yin may not necessarily be the case.

Before becoming president, Yin Xiyue was a political novice and a "mercenary" president brought back by the National Power Party. Forcing him to resign from the party would not shake the foundation of the party.

 But it's different when there is a defection and division within the party.

We can make a horizontal comparison. Among the 10 Republican congressmen who voted in favor of impeaching Trump that year, 4 voluntarily retired, the other 4 were defeated by Trump supporters, and only 2 continued to serve as congressmen.

Although Yoon Seok yeol is far less popular than Trump, the lesson of the conservative camp's disastrous defeat after impeaching Park Geun hye is still vivid in our memory.

Liz Cheney, who joined forces with the Democratic Party to impeach Trump, was defeated by Trump's candidate and expelled from Congress.

 Due to the Iraq War, her father, former Vice President Cheney, had a low reputation among the American public.

 This' second generation of officials' who rely on their elders to establish themselves have no resistance when facing the truly popular celebrity Trump.

Q: Will Yin Xiyue resign voluntarily?

Answer: The probability of impeachment is higher than the probability of serving for five years.

Yoon Seok yeol once personally sent Park Geun hye to prison, and he was well aware of the pros and cons involved.

 For him, the best option at present is to stick to serving for five years, or at least wait until the political climate is favorable to the conservative camp before resigning, in order to reach a behind the scenes deal with the conservative camp in exchange for amnesty or medical parole.

An important observation indicator is the trend of cabinet candidates such as the new Defense Minister appointed by Yoon Seok yeol. If there are consecutive rejections or resignations of nominees, Yoon Seok yeol may not be able to stay.

The picture of Park Geun hye, who was sent to prison by Yoon Seok yeol and then pardoned by Yoon Seok yeol, has been fluctuating.

Q: Where will the South Korean President go to jail?

Answer: Lee Myung bak is detained in the eastern detention center of Seoul, while Park Geun hye is detained in the southern detention center of Seoul in Yiwang City.

 Both of these places have detained several South Korean prisoners known as "Bomt" (originally meaning "tiger skin", now referring to wealthy and powerful prisoners).

 According to Park Geun hye, supporters' voices could occasionally be heard outside the prison cell.

Picture of Park Geun hye being detained at the Seoul South Detention Center

Q: How long does the president usually stay in prison?

Answer: Based on the experience of the first two, there is a high chance that Yin Xiyue will be sentenced to more than ten years, but usually she will be released on medical parole or granted amnesty after a few years.

 The presidency is a profession that requires a lot of energy and physical exertion. After being imprisoned, the accumulated fatigue and illness are easily concentrated and the body will quickly collapse.

The image of Lee Myung bak being granted amnesty for health reasons is not like a serious illness

Question: Is there any preferential treatment for the president in prison?

Answer: There is special treatment, but it cannot be considered preferential treatment.

 The former president will be held in a single cell of 10-13 square meters (ordinary prisoners share the same area with 4 people), with empty isolation on both sides of the cell and around 10 police officers on 24-hour shifts for monitoring.

The cell is equipped with a television (reportedly an outdated model with a large butt that has been phased out by the outside world), mirrors, dining table and desk, storage cabinets, washbasins, bedding, and cleaning supplies. contact with any prisoner is prohibited, and there are cameras monitoring the cell 24 hours a day.

The food standard is $1.3 per meal, and breakfast includes bread, tomato sauce, cheese, soup, salad and soybean milk.

 For lunch, we had bone and vegetable soup with rice, bean sprouts, pickled vegetables, and seaweed, but the food was heavy, spicy, and oily (with a standard construction site style of big pot rice, but with less meat). We washed our own trays and slept on a folding mattress on the floor.

picture

Life in a prison cell without freedom is not easy

You can horizontally compare the treatment of another imprisoned Korean celebrity, Li Shengli. After Li Shengli is imprisoned, he will receive prison clothes, underwear, toothpaste, toothbrush, soap, and towels provided by the prison. He can also buy more than 120 items at his own expense, including canned silver fish, vacuum packaged smoked chicken, yogurt, and branded T-shirts sold on the market.

 In addition, beauty products and convenience items such as sunscreen, shower gel, sleep goggles, etc. are also available, and there are even various vitamin C, eye drops, and dandruff shampoo.

In theory, the monthly consumption limit is 300000 to 400000 Korean won.

 To purchase items, you can submit an application daily, and the requested items will be distributed twice a week.

 The maximum amount of items that can be purchased in a day is 20000 Korean won.

 In contrast, Park Geun hye can only make ends meet by buying instant noodles while in prison.

The era of images is advancing, and it is also possible to tighten the screws

The picture is probably the prison cell with this structure

Q: Does the president really have to step on the sewing machine too?

Answer: In theory, Korean prisoners would have the opportunity to be assigned this type of labor.

 However, due to the fact that presidents who have been imprisoned in recent years are generally old and not suitable for work, having them step on sewing machines requires the allocation of labor space among the masses. Former presidents who use sewing machines to produce such labels are also prone to political leverage.

 So the probability is very low.

Q: What can the president do in prison without stepping on the sewing machine?

Answer: I usually spend my days reading books or pacing back and forth in my cell. I have a fixed outdoor exercise time of 45 minutes every day.

 According to Park Geun hye's description, the prison cell is cold in winter and hot in summer, with extremely poor ventilation and insulation performance.

 This is a common problem in South Korean prisons, and many foreigners who have been in prison in South Korea also complain about this.

The most unbearable part is actually the psychological pressure of being alone and the gap between luxury and frugality. After all, there are two types of imprisonment for South Korean presidents: one is to become president after serving time (Kim Dae jung), and during his time as a poor boy, he naturally could withstand imprisonment;

 Lee Myung bak and Park Geun hye, who have fallen into poverty and become prisoners of luxury, find it most difficult to adapt.

Picture of Kim Dae jung in prison, almost sentenced to death

Q: If Yin Xiyue goes to jail, will other presidents who have been in jail feel secretly pleased?

Answer: Let's see what Park Geun hye, who was sent to prison by Yoon Seok yeol, said afterwards.

He said about the past, 'I really don't have the face to see you. I've always been sorry,' while I just listened quietly.

 Yoon Seok yeol said, "I deeply regret that the good policies and achievements of the Park Geun hye government have not been truthfully disclosed. I will inherit and widely promote what former President Park Geun hye did. I will restore your reputation and give you the correct evaluation of the nation.

1. Even Han Dong hoon, the political opponent of Yoon Seok yeol and the leader of the ruling party, the National Power Party, who joined forces with the opposition to lift martial law, has clearly stated his opposition to impeachment.

句子成分分析：

[Even] Han Dong hoon, the political opponent (of Yoon Seok yeol) and the leader (of the ruling party, <the National Power Party, (who joined forces [with the opposition] to lift martial law)>,) has [clearly] stated his opposition [to impeachment].

句子语法结构详解：

* National Power Party 为同位语
* who 为关系代词，引导非限制性定语从句。
* joined 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* to lift 为不定式，作状语。
* stated 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* his 为形容词型物主代词。has 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

2. For him, the best option at present is to stick to serving for five years, or at least wait until the political climate is favorable to the conservative camp before resigning, in order to reach a behind the scenes deal with the conservative camp in exchange for amnesty or medical parole.

句子成分分析：

[For him], the best option (at present) is to stick to serving for five years, or [at least] wait || until the political climate is favorable [to the conservative camp] [before resigning], || in order to reach a behind || the scenes deal with the conservative camp [in exchange] [for amnesty or medical parole].

句子语法结构详解：

(best 为 good 的最高级形式)

* 第1个 is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* to stick 为不定式，作表语。
* serving 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* wait 为谓语。
* until 为连词，引导时间状语从句。
* 第2个 is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* favorable 为形容词作表语。
* resigning 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* in order 引导状语从句。
* to reach 为不定式。
* 第4个 the 开头为陈述句。
* deal 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* him 为人称代词宾格。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子相关学习点：

 arrive, reach 和 get 的区别

3.Based on the experience of the first two, there is a high chance that Yin Xiyue will be sentenced to more than ten years, but usually she will be released on medical parole or granted amnesty after a few years.

句子成分分析：

[Based on the experience (of the first two)], there is a high chance (that Yin Xiyue will be sentenced to [more than] ten years), || but [usually] she will be released on medical parole or granted amnesty [after a few years].

ten[ten]

• num

• 十

句子语法结构详解：

* there 引导 there be ... 句型, 表示“有”的意思。
* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* that 为连词，引导同位语从句。
* sentenced 为谓语，采用一般将来时和被动语态。
* but 为并列连词，连接并列句，表转折。
* released 为谓语，采用一般将来时和被动语态。
* granted 为谓语，采用一般将来时和被动语态。
* will 为情态动词。she 为人称代词主格。be 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子相关学习点：

 in 和 after 后接时间的区别

4. After all, there are two types of imprisonment for South Korean presidents: one is to become president after serving time (Kim Dae jung), and during his time as a poor boy, he naturally could withstand imprisonment; Lee Myung bak and Park Geun hye, who have fallen into poverty and become prisoners of luxury, find it most difficult to adapt.

句子成分分析：

[After all], there are two types (of imprisonment) [for South Korean presidents]: one is to become president [after serving time (Kim Dae jung)], || and [during his time] [as a poor boy], he naturally could withstand imprisonment; Lee Myung bak and Park Geun hye, (who have fallen into poverty and become prisoners (of luxury)), find it most difficult to adapt.

句子语法结构详解：

(fallen 为 fall 的过去分词。第2个 become 为过去分词，与其动词原形拼写相同。)

* there 引导 there be ... 句型, 表示“有”的意思。
* are 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* to become 为不定式，作表语。
* 第1个 become 为系动词。
* 第2个 president 为名词作表语。
* serving 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* 第1个 and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* withstand 为谓语。
* who 为关系代词，引导非限制性定语从句。
* fallen 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* 第2个 become 为系动词作谓语，采用现在完成时。
* prisoner 为名词作表语。
* find 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* it 为先行形式宾语，代表后移的不定式
* difficult 为形容词作宾语补足语(即构成复合宾语)。
* to adapt 为不定式。
* can 为情态动词。he 为人称代词主格。his 为形容词型物主代词。have 为助动词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子相关学习点：

 one 作代词的用法
 as, when, while 的区别
 can 与 be able to 的区别

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