泽连斯基：俄乌冲突完全有可能在2025年结束
当地时间11月23日，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在第三届“乌克兰谷物”国际粮食安全会议框架内与外国媒体交谈时表示，完全有可能在2025年结束冲突。
泽连斯基表示，至于冲突何时结束，需要看俄罗斯希望这场冲突何时结束，此外，还需要美国的立场更加坚定，“全球南方”国家与乌克兰站在一起。他还表示，这条道路虽然困难，但他相信2025年完全有机会做到这一点。
延伸阅读：
媒体：拜登想最后扶泽连斯基一把 但可能更快送走他
距离任期结束还有两个月，拜登也在加紧抓住最后的时间，再扶泽连斯基一把。
继同意乌克兰利用美产ATACMS战术导弹对俄罗斯领土进行攻击后，11月20日又有消息传出，拜登政府将再向乌克兰提供至少2.75亿美元（折合人民币19.92亿元）的新武器。
至于拜登的这些“帮助”，能不能切实扭转乌克兰当前在战场上的不利局面，仍是一个未知数，但毫无疑问，这将进一步激化俄乌矛盾。
拜登被迫加速
在2024年之前，美国一直在非正式层面上，禁止乌克兰利用其提供的武器对俄罗斯领土发动攻击。乌克兰政府曾多次向美方提出解除这一限制的请求，均遭到了拒绝。
但今年春季开始，这一情况有所转变。当时俄军在哈尔科夫方向的活动显著增强，对此，美国作出回应，允许乌克兰使用美国武器对该区域的俄军进行打击，但同时重申，禁止乌克兰使用ATACMS导弹系统深入俄罗斯境内进行攻击的禁令依然有效。
2024年8月6日，乌军发起了对库尔斯克地区的进攻。夏末时节，乌克兰政府再次提出要求，希望美国能够解除对乌克兰使用美国援助的远程武器打击俄罗斯的禁令。随后，在9月11日，美国总统拜登表示，他与其幕僚团队正在就这一问题进行深入讨论。
2024年8月13日，在俄罗斯库尔斯克市，来自俄乌边境地区的居民排队领取救援物资 新华社
对于美国的这一动向，俄罗斯总统普京表示，如果拜登真的做出这样的决定，那将意味着北约直接卷入了这场冲突。普京强调，在没有西方军队直接参与的情况下，乌克兰利用美国援助的远程武器攻击俄罗斯是不可能的，一旦出现这种情况，就意味着西方军队已经做好了与俄罗斯爆发直接冲突的准备。
两周之后，即9月25日，普京宣布对俄罗斯的核理论进行修订。根据新的核理论，使用核武器的前提现在可以是对俄罗斯领土的常规武器攻击，或者是拥有核武器的国家支持无核国家采取的行动对俄罗斯构成威胁。
此后，关于允许乌克兰使用美国援助的远程武器打击俄罗斯的话题，也逐渐淡出了公众的视野。西方媒体报道称，拜登对于做出这一决定显得犹豫不决。
而与此同时，乌克兰方面则持续向美国施压，要求其解除禁令。10月中旬，乌克兰总统泽连斯基公布了他所谓的“乌克兰胜利计划”，其中一项重要内容就是呼吁美国“解除禁令”。大约在同一时期，在乌克兰和西方媒体的炒作下，有关朝鲜军队参与俄罗斯在乌克兰军事行动的报道开始成为舆论的焦点，西方媒体声称朝鲜参与了俄罗斯在库尔斯克地区的军事行动。
如今美国大选尘埃落定，特朗普一向对援助乌克兰持保留态度，胜选后他明确表示，在他领导下，美国将不会主动挑起战争，而是致力于推动战争的结束。他计划促成俄罗斯与乌克兰回到谈判桌前，以尽快终结这场冲突。
这在一定程度上，也迫使拜登加速了援乌步伐。
这次批准的ATACMS导弹，是由美国洛克希德马丁公司研发并制造的地面发射战术弹道导弹，能够通过多管火箭系统（MLRS）进行发射。五角大楼对于已援助给乌克兰的ATACMS导弹的具体型号保密，但据悉，ATACMS新型号导弹的射程可达300公里之远，这意味着包括库尔斯克和沃罗涅日在内的俄罗斯西部多个地区都可能处于其打击范围之内。而英法两国的“风暴之影”空射巡航导弹，其射程更是超过500公里。
由M270发射车发射的ATACMS导弹
然而，这些武器对于俄乌冲突的直接影响或许有限，原因主要有两点：一是乌克兰此类导弹的库存量并不大；二是俄罗斯防空部队在击落西方战术导弹方面积累了丰富的经验。在俄乌冲突期间，乌克兰曾向克里米亚和塞瓦斯托波尔发射过这些导弹，但大多数都被成功拦截。
因此，拜登的这次决定更多被视为一种政治姿态，旨在为乌克兰“加油打气”，并试图激励欧洲盟友站在对抗俄罗斯的第一线。这一决策的政治考量显然重于军事考量。
给特朗普的“临别赠礼”
美国商人戴维·萨克斯（David Sachs）就此事发表看法，认为这是“即将离职的国家领导人给新政府添乱”的举动，并指责拜登做出这一决定是“在外交和外交政策上的极度不负责任”。
萨克斯此言一出，共和党内随即掀起了一波接一波的批评浪潮。特朗普的挚友、美国知名企业家马斯克发出警告，称俄罗斯将会“以牙还牙，采取相同的报复措施”。而特朗普的儿子小特朗普更是直言不讳地称那些支持“解禁”的人是蠢货，他认为拜登政府的这一举动完全是出于美国军工复合体的私利，为了赚钱而不顾民众的死活。
拜登的这一决定确实充满了浓厚的“党争”色彩。按照美国的政治惯例，在前任总统任期即将结束之际，就重大战争冲突做出如此高调的决策是会被认为“有失体面”的。然而，在当今美国政治极度分裂的大环境下，所谓的体面早已被抛诸脑后。从选举失利的初步打击中缓过神来的民主党，现在正琢磨着如何破坏权力的平稳过渡，给特朗普“下套”。
正是在这样的背景下，我们更应深入探究拜登为何会不顾及自身的“体面”而做出这一决定，以及他在“解禁”问题上为何仍显得不够果决。
在赢得大选后，特朗普立即加快了组建执政团队的进程，有消息称特朗普正在考虑其团队“乌克兰问题特使”的人选。几位热门候选人中，布莱恩·胡克（Brian Hook）呼声最高，他在特朗普的第一个任期内，负责促成以色列与海湾国家之间达成和解的“亚伯拉罕协议”，特朗普认为他丰富的劝和经验能够促成俄乌停战。另一个热门人选是俄裔美国人鲍里斯·爱泼斯坦（Boris Epstein），其与特朗普和俄罗斯两方关系都较为密切。
特朗普团队“乌克兰问题特使”人选中布莱恩·胡克呼声最高 美国参议院视频截图
在有了人手的理想情况下，特朗普甚至希望在1月20日就任总统之前就启动谈判进程。但现在，特朗普的这些计划有提前泡汤的危险。拜登的决定可能导致局势升级，这会提前结束特朗普团队在乌克兰问题上与俄罗斯达成妥协的愿望。这是拜登之所以急于做出“不体面决定”的根本原因：特朗普方面已经做好了准备，甚至跃跃欲试，想要在拜登的留任期内就撇开拜登，提前与俄罗斯方面接触。
拜登打算在不等待特朗普的情况下，主动再向乌克兰援助一年的防空导弹，这是典型的“在我之后，哪管洪水滔天”的逻辑。导弹显然不足以改变战场上的力量平衡，俄罗斯90%的关键军事设施都在提供的导弹射程之外，俄罗斯的回应也注定会非常强硬。
因此，拜登在大选前权衡了所有利弊后，最终没有做出决定，即使是在此次做出了决定后，也对“解禁”作出了诸多限制。但在特朗普获胜后，民主党的政治算计可能已经发生了变化，箭在弦上已不得不发。
除了拜登外，亲民主党的势力已宣布要发起“抵抗运动”，在特朗普就职当天举行抗议集会。国会中的民主党人甚至在考虑组建自己的“影子政府”，与特朗普政府分庭抗礼。剩下的这两个月的时间里，民主党方面一定会给特朗普尽量制造问题。所以拜登的行为，很可能只是在美国政治分裂过程中“顺其自然”的举动。目前来看，拜登极有可能会在后续继续去除“解禁”的各种限制，以达成使局势进一步升级的目的。
拜登的乌克兰战略：困境中的最后冲刺与挑战
目前，拜登对乌克兰采取了双管齐下的策略。一方面，他在外交上积极联络盟友，持续巩固西方对乌克兰的支持立场。这一战略的基础是9月末在白宫由拜登、哈里斯和泽连斯基共同举行的三方会谈。拜登力图表明，支持乌克兰依然是西方的“头等大事”，他希望由自己亲自坚定西方对乌克兰的支持决心，并抵御特朗普上台后可能带来的“负面影响”。
英国、法国等美国的欧洲盟友也有意协助拜登政府。他们清楚，在特朗普政府的领导下，他们在乌克兰问题上有可能会失去美国的支持，还要同时应对特朗普政府挥舞的关税大棒。
然而，现实却让英法等国犯了难。
11月17日，《费加罗报》报道了英法同时解除对乌克兰使用援助导弹的限制，这在某种程度上可以看作是两国对拜登政府的“试探性表态”。但实际上，英法两国的导弹库存甚至比ATACMS还要稀缺。美国试图通过这种方式让欧洲盟友共同承担“解禁”带来的所有风险，而英法等国则陷入了既想支持拜登、又资源有限，既想规避风险、又难以抉择的困境。
因此，《费加罗报》在报道后不久便匆匆撤下了相关文章，这充分反映了英法等美国欧洲盟友内心的矛盾与挣扎。拜登在外交上试图驱使欧洲盟友与其共同承担风险、持续支持乌克兰的打算，实际上难以真正落地。
另一方面，拜登继续在经济和军事上对乌克兰提供援助。他最近宣布了一个总额达80亿美元的一揽子计划，旨在为乌克兰提供新型武器，提升其远程打击能力，这也透露出拜登正在默许乌克兰对俄罗斯采取更具攻击性的战术，而非仅限于短程防御。
该计划还包含了“乌克兰安全援助倡议”，这一倡议允许美国政府直接从军工企业为乌克兰采购武器，而无需动用美国的军火库存。拜登已明确要求美国国防部在他任期结束前，确保已分配给乌克兰的所有安全援助款项得到落实，并切实交付到乌克兰手中，以防特朗普试图阻止这一计划的实施。
然而，拜登的这一计划同样面临难以实施的困境。俄罗斯军队正竭力在前线取得更多突破，乌克兰的前线局势在持续恶化，筋疲力尽的乌克兰军队不得不向多个方向撤退。面对瞬息万变的战局，美国对乌克兰的援助也增添了诸多不确定性。
特朗普胜选后，美国国会内已出现不愿听从拜登团队指示的声音，有共和党人扬言，在新总统就职前，国会不会就新的乌克兰援助方案达成一致。根据美国舆论的说法，以贷款形式向乌克兰提供援助的“前所未有的吸引力”已经不复存在。特朗普的核心团队，包括其儿子，都在谴责民主党人试图在“过渡期”挑起第三次世界大战，民主党继续援助乌克兰所面临的舆论压力可谓空前巨大。
在特朗普已明确表示要进行大规模整肃的背景下，就连五角大楼也缺乏执行拜登命令的积极性。除了部分美军军官因在美军撤离阿富汗时的混乱局面中，替拜登政府承担了全部责任而心生不满，还有人则担忧特朗普上台后会对乌克兰问题进行“反腐调查”，进而牵涉到自身，因此也急于与拜登政府撇清关系。有传言称，目前向媒体泄露信息的很可能是美军中那些心怀不满的官员，他们不愿为拜登的“激进政策”承担后果。这些人中的一部分甚至可能暗中阻挠拜登的政策，减少对乌克兰的武器供应。
美国战略与国际研究中心高级顾问 马克·康西安：“对乌援助”这种说法不当，因为这个词暗指所有的钱都给了乌克兰，但实际上这些有约60%都花在了美国自己身上 央视新闻
总而言之，拜登政府既不愿看到其在乌克兰问题上的所有努力最终付诸东流，又因为即将卸任难以有效落实政策而无法实现其目标，因此陷入了进退两难的尴尬境地。
俄罗斯可能会做出什么样的反应？
对于拜登的决定，俄罗斯可能会采取以下三种应对措施：
第一种是“报复性反击”。即如果美国或英国的导弹袭击了俄罗斯本土，俄罗斯将会以其人之道还治其人之身，对北约领土上的美国或英国军事设施进行导弹反击。虽然俄罗斯显然不希望局势发展到这一步，但考虑到当前美国和欧洲的政局，这种情况发生的可能性并不小。
第二种是摧毁位于北约领土之外的美国武器。比如，在黑海上空飞行的侦察机。这种选择可以看作是对美国和欧洲行动的“对等回应”。
第三种情况，也是最有可能的一种，就是在北约领土之外，通过代理人战争的方式进行报复。俄总统普京在今年6月曾明确表示，如果西方向乌克兰提供远程导弹系统，并允许其用于攻击俄罗斯本土，俄罗斯将保留向“那些正面临压力的国家或法律实体”提供武器的权利。
11月20日，美国驻乌克兰大使馆宣布因“重大空袭警报”宣布紧急闭馆，意大利、希腊和西班牙等国也纷纷跟进，基辅局势瞬间陷入高度紧张。毫无疑问，拜登在这两个月的举动具有高度危险性，泽连斯基除了要准备好应对特朗普2.0冲击波，还要应对拜登的余波。
翻译：
Speaking to foreign media in the framework of the third International Food security Conference "Grains of Ukraine" on November 23, local time, Ukrainian president Zelensky said that it is entirely possible to end the conflict by 2025.
Zelensky said that as for when the conflict will end, it will depend on when Russia wants the conflict to end, and it will also need a firmer stance from the United States and the countries of the "global South" to stand with Ukraine. He also said that while the path is difficult, he believes there is every chance of doing it in 2025.
Extended reading:
Media: Biden wants to give Zelensky one last hand but may send him away sooner
With two months to go before the end of his term, Biden is also racing to seize the last minute to give Zelensky another hand.
After agreeing to Ukraine's use of US-made ATACMS tactical missiles to attack Russian territory, it was reported on November 20 that the Biden administration will provide Ukraine with at least $275 million (equivalent to 1.992 billion yuan) of new weapons.
As for Biden's "help", can effectively reverse Ukraine's current unfavorable situation on the battlefield, it is still unknown, but there is no doubt that this will further intensify the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Biden was forced to accelerate
The United States has unofficially barred Ukraine from using weapons it supplies to launch attacks on Russian territory until 2024. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly asked the United States to lift this restriction, but has been rejected.
But starting this spring, that changed. In response to a significant increase in Russian military activity in the direction of Kharkiv, the United States allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to strike Russian forces in the area, but reiterated that the ban on Ukraine using the ATACMS missile system to attack deep into Russian territory remained in place.
On August 6, 2024, the Ukrainian army launched an offensive against the Kursk region. In late summer, the Ukrainian government again demanded that the United States lift its ban on using American-assisted long-range weapons against Russia. Then, on September 11, US President Joe Biden said he and his staff were in deep discussions on the issue.
Residents from the Russia-Ukraine border region line up to receive relief supplies in Kursk, Russia, August 13, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that if Biden really made such a decision, it would mean that NATO was directly involved in the conflict. Putin stressed that it is impossible for Ukraine to attack Russia with US-assisted long-range weapons without the direct involvement of Western forces, which means that Western forces are ready for a direct conflict with Russia.
Two weeks later, on September 25, Putin announced a revision of Russia's nuclear doctrine. according to the new nuclear doctrine, the use of nuclear weapons can now be presupposes by a conventional weapons attack on Russian territory, or by an action by a nuclear-armed state supporting a non-nuclear state that poses a threat to Russia.
Since then, talk of allowing Ukraine to use American-assisted long-range weapons against Russia has faded from public view. Western media reported that Biden appeared hesitant to make the decision.
At the same time, Ukraine continues to pressure the United States to lift the ban. In mid-October, Ukrainian President Volodymyk Zelensky unveiled his so-called "victory plan for Ukraine," one of the important elements of which is to call on the United States to "lift the ban." Around the same time, reports of North Korean military involvement in Russian military operations in Ukraine began to come to the forefront of public opinion, fueled by speculation in Ukrainian and Western media, which claimed North Korean involvement in Russian military operations in the Kursk region.
Now that the dust has settled in the US election, Trump has always had reservations about assisting Ukraine, and after winning the election, he made it clear that under his leadership, the United States will not take the initiative to start the war, but is committed to promoting the end of the war. He plans to bring Russia and Ukraine back to the negotiating table to end the conflict as soon as possible.
This, to a certain extent, also forced Biden to accelerate the pace of aid to Ukraine.
The approved ATACMS missile is a ground-launched tactical ballistic missile developed and manufactured by Lockheed Martin that can be launched via a multiple launch rocket system (MLRS). The Pentagon has kept secret the exact type of ATACMS missiles it has sent to Ukraine, but it is understood that the new ATACMS missile has a range of up to 300 kilometers, which means that several regions in western Russia, including Kursk and Voronezh, could be within its range. The British and French "Storm Shadow" air-launched cruise missiles have a range of more than 500 kilometers.
An ATACMS missile launched from an M270 launcher
However, the direct impact of these weapons on the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be limited for two main reasons: first, Ukraine's stocks of such missiles are not large; Second, Russian air defense forces have accumulated extensive experience in shooting down Western tactical missiles. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine fired these missiles at Crimea and Sevastopol, but most were successfully intercepted.
As a result, Biden's decision was seen more as a political gesture, designed to "pump up" Ukraine and try to galvanize European Allies to stand on the front lines against Russia. The political considerations clearly outweigh the military ones.
A parting gift for Donald Trump
American businessman David Sachs commented on the matter, calling it a move by an "outgoing national leader to throw the new administration into confusion" and accusing Biden of making the decision as "a profound irresponsibility in diplomacy and foreign policy."
Sacks' comments set off a wave of criticism from Republicans. Mr Musk, a close friend of Mr Trump and a well-known US entrepreneur, warned that Russia would "retaliate in kind". And Trump's son Trump Jr. bluntly called those who support "lifting the ban" stupid, he believes that the Biden administration's move is completely out of the selfish interests of the US military-industrial complex, in order to make money and regardless of the lives of the people.
Biden's decision is indeed full of a strong "partisan" color. It is customary in American politics to make such a high-profile decision on a major war conflict at the end of a former president's term. But in today's deeply divisive American politics, decency has long since been forgotten. Recovering from the initial shock of the election loss, the Democratic Party is now contemplating how to undermine the smooth transition of power and set up a trap for Trump.
It is in this context that we should further explore why Biden made this decision without regard to his own "decency", and why he still appears indecisive on the issue of "lifting the ban".
After winning the election, Trump immediately accelerated the process of forming a governing team, and it is reported that Trump is considering the selection of his team's "special envoy for Ukraine." Among the top candidates is Brian Hook, who was responsible for brokering the "Abraham Accord" of reconciliation between Israel and the Gulf states during Trump's first term, and whose extensive persuasion and experience Trump believes can bring about a truce between Russia and Ukraine. Another leading candidate is Boris Epstein, a Russian-American with close ties to both Trump and Russia.
The Trump team's "special envoy for Ukraine" candidate Brian Hook is the most popular US Senate video screenshot
In an ideal world with staff, Mr Trump would like to start the process even before he takes office on January 20. But Mr Trump's plans are now in danger of being scuppered ahead of schedule. Mr. Biden's decision could lead to an escalation that would prematurely end the Trump team's hopes of reaching a compromise with Russia over Ukraine. This is the fundamental reason why Biden was so eager to make the "unseemly decision" : the Trump side was ready, even eager, to set aside Biden and engage with the Russian side in advance during Biden's stay in office.
Biden's intention to voluntarily send anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine for another year without waiting for Trump is typical of the logic of "after me, no matter what the flood." The missiles are clearly not enough to change the balance of power on the battlefield, 90% of Russia's key military installations are outside the range of the missiles provided, and Russia's response is bound to be very tough.
Therefore, Biden did not make a decision after weighing all the advantages and disadvantages before the election, and even after making a decision this time, he placed many restrictions on "lifting the ban." But in the wake of Trump's victory, the Democrats' political calculus may have changed, and the arrows have to be fired.
In addition to Biden, pro-Democratic forces have announced that they will launch a "resistance movement" and hold a protest rally on Trump's inauguration day. Democrats in Congress are even considering forming their own "shadow government" to rival the Trump administration. In the remaining two months, the Democratic side will certainly create problems for Trump as much as possible. So Biden's behavior is probably just a move to "let nature take its course" in the divisive process of American politics. At present, it is highly likely that Biden will continue to remove the various restrictions of "lifting the ban" in the future, in order to achieve the purpose of further escalating the situation.
Biden's Ukraine Strategy: A Final Push and a Challenge in a difficult situation
For now, Biden has a two-pronged approach to Ukraine. On the one hand, he has actively engaged in diplomatic outreach to Allies and continued to consolidate Western support for Ukraine. The strategy was based on a three-way meeting at the White House in late September between Biden, Harris and Zelensky. Mr Biden sought to show that support for Ukraine remained the West's "top priority", and that he wanted to personally strengthen the West's resolve to support Ukraine and fend off the "negative impact" that Mr Trump might bring.
The United Kingdom, France and other European Allies of the United States are also interested in assisting the Biden administration. They know that under the Trump administration, they risk losing the support of the United States over Ukraine, while also dealing with the Trump administration's big stick of tariffs.
The reality, however, is that countries such as Britain and France find it difficult.
On November 17, Le Figaro reported that Britain and France had simultaneously lifted restrictions on the use of aid missiles in Ukraine, which could be seen to some extent as a "tentative statement" by the two countries to the Biden administration. But in reality, British and French missile stocks are even scarcer than ATACMS. In this way, the United States tried to make its European Allies share all the risks brought about by "lifting the ban", while countries such as Britain and France were caught in the dilemma of wanting to support Biden, but with limited resources, and wanting to avoid risks and difficult to choose.
Therefore, Le Figaro hurriedly withdrew the relevant article shortly after the report, which fully reflects the internal contradictions and struggles of Britain, France and other European Allies of the United States. Mr. Biden's diplomatic efforts to coddle European Allies into sharing the risk and continuing support for Ukraine have been difficult to achieve.
Biden, on the other hand, continues to aid Ukraine economically and militarily. His recent announcement of an $8 billion package to provide Ukraine with new weapons to improve its long-range strike capabilities also suggests that Mr. Biden is acquiescing to more aggressive tactics against Russia, rather than limited to short-range defense.
The plan also includes the "Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative," which allows the U.S. government to purchase weapons for Ukraine directly from the military-industrial complex without having to draw on U.S. stockpiles. Biden has explicitly asked the Defense department to ensure that all security assistance funds that have been allocated to Ukraine are realized and actually delivered to Ukraine by the end of his term, in case Trump tries to block the program.
However, Biden's plan also faces difficulties in implementation. Russian forces are struggling to make more breakthroughs on the front lines, which continue to deteriorate in Ukraine, forcing exhausted Ukrainian troops to retreat in multiple directions. In the face of a rapidly changing war, American aid to Ukraine has added to the uncertainty.
After Trump's election victory, the US Congress has been unwilling to follow the instructions of the Biden team, and some Republicans have threatened that Congress will not agree on a new Ukraine aid package before the new president takes office. According to American public opinion, the "unprecedented attractiveness" of providing aid to Ukraine in the form of loans is no longer there. Trump's inner circle, including his son, has accused Democrats of trying to start World War III during the "transition period," and the public pressure on Democrats to continue aid to Ukraine is unprecedentedly high.
Even the Pentagon has little incentive to carry out Mr Biden's orders amid a broad purge that Mr Trump has made clear he wants. In addition to the dissatisfaction of some US military officers who took full responsibility for the Biden administration in the chaos of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, some people are worried that Trump will conduct an "anti-corruption investigation" on the Ukraine issue after taking office, and then involve themselves, so they are eager to distance themselves from the Biden administration. There are rumors that the current leaks to the media are likely to be disgruntled officials in the US military who do not want to face the consequences of Biden's "radical policies." Some of these people may even be working to thwart Biden's policy of reducing arms supplies to Ukraine.
Mark Concian, senior adviser at the center for Strategic and International Studies: The term "aid to Ukraine" is improper, because the term implies that all the money is given to Ukraine, but in fact about 60% of it is spent on the United States itself
All in all, the Biden administration is caught between not wanting to see all its efforts on Ukraine ultimately go to waste, and not being able to achieve its goals because it will be difficult to implement policies effectively in the near term.
How is Russia likely to react?
There are three possible ways Russia could respond to Biden's decision:
The first is "retaliatory counterattack." That is, if an American or British missile strikes Russia itself, Russia will respond in kind by launching a missile strike against an American or British military installation on NATO territory. While Russia clearly does not want the situation to come to this point, given the current political situation in the United States and Europe, it is not a small possibility.
The second is to destroy American weapons located outside NATO territory. For example, reconnaissance planes flying over the Black Sea. This choice can be seen as a "reciprocal response" to the actions of the United States and Europe.
The third and most likely scenario is retaliation outside NATO territory through a proxy war. Russian President Vladimir Putin made clear in June that if the west provided Ukraine with long-range missile systems and allowed them to be used to attack Russia itself, Russia would reserve the right to supply arms to "those countries or legal entities that are under pressure."
On November 20, the United States Embassy in Ukraine announced an emergency closure due to a "major air raid warning," and Italy, Greece and Spain followed suit, instantly plunging the situation in Kiev into high tension. There is no doubt that Biden's actions during these two months are highly risky, and Zelensky has to be prepared to deal with the Biden fallout as well as the Trump 2.0 shock wave.
句子分析：
1.
句子成分分析：
[At present], it is highly likely | that Biden will continue to remove the various restrictions (of "[lifting the ban]") [in the future], || in order to achieve the purpose (of further escalating the situation).
句子语法结构详解：
* it 为先行主语，代表后移的主语从句。
* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* likely 为形容词作表语。
* that 引导主语从句。
* continue 为谓语，采用一般将来时。
* to remove 为不定式，作宾语。
* lifting 为现在分词。
* in order 引导状语从句。
* to achieve 为不定式。
* further escalating 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* will 为情态动词。the 为定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Phrase:
| at present | 目前, 现在 |
| in the future | 将来 |
| in order to do sth | 为了... |
Vocabulary:
| highly ['haili] | ad. | 1) 很，非常 2) 高标准地，高级地 |
| likely ['laikli] | a. | 1) 可能的，预料的，有希望的 2) 似乎合适的，仿佛恰当的 |
| continue [kәn'tinju:] | vt. | 1) （停顿后）继续，再开始 2) 持续做，持续某种状态，不断发生 |
| remove [ri'mu:v] | vt. | 1) 移开，拿开，去掉，从……机构开除 2) 脱去（衣服等），摘下 |
| various ['vєәriәs] | a. | 1) 各种不同的，各种各样的 2) 具有多种特征的，多姿多彩的 |
| restriction [ri'strikʃәn] | n. | 1) 限制，约束 2) 限制规定，限制法规 |
| lift [lift] | vt. | 1) 提起，举起，抬高，吊起 2) 移开，移动 |
| ban [bæn] | n. | 禁令 |
| achieve [ә'tʃi:v] | vt. | 1) （凭长期努力）达到（某目标、地位、标准） 2) 完成 |
| purpose ['pә:pәs] | n. | 1) 意图，目的，用途，目标 2) （purposes）情势的需要 |
| further ['fә:ðә] | ad. | 1) 进一步，在更大程度上， 大更大范围内 2) (far的比较级) (距离上)更远, 较远 |
| escalate ['eskәleit] | vt. | 使逐步扩大，不断恶化，加剧 |
| situation [,sitju'eiʃәn] | n. | 1) 情况，状况， 形势 2) 地点，地理位置 |
2.
句子成分分析：
Mr Biden sought to show | that support (for Ukraine) remained the West's "top priority", and | that he wanted to personally strengthen the West's resolve to support Ukraine and fend off the "negative impact" (that Mr Trump might bring).
句子语法结构详解：
(sought 为 seek 的过去式。)
* sought 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* to show 为不定式，作宾语。
* 第1个 that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* remained 为系动词作谓语，采用一般过去时。
* priority 为名词作表语。
* 第2个 that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* wanted 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* to personally strengthen 为不定式，作宾语。
* to support 为不定式，作状语。
* fend 为不带 to 的不定式。
* 第3个 that 为关系代词，引导定语从句。
* bring 为谓语。
* may 为情态动词。he 为人称代词主格。West's 为名词所有格。the 为定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Vocabulary:
| seek [si:k] | vt. | 1) （向人）请求，寻求 2) 寻找 |
| show [ʃәu] | vt. | 1) 显示出，流露出（情感、表情等） 2) 表明，显示, 证明 |
| support [sә'pɔ:t] | n. | 1) 支持，帮助 2) 支援，救助 |
| Ukraine | n. | [地名] 乌克兰 |
| remain [ri'mein] | vt. | 仍然是 |
| west [west] | n. | 1) 西，西方 2) 美国西部 |
| top [tɔp] | a. | （位置、级别或程度）最高的 |
| priority [prai'ɔriti] | n. | 1) 优先，优先权，重点 2) 优先事项，最重要的事，首要事情 |
| and [ænd] | conj. | 1) 和, 与, 同, 并 2) 然后，接着 |
| want [wɔnt] | vt. | 1) 要，想要，希望 2) 需要 |
| personally ['pә:sәnli] | ad. | 1) 亲自, 亲身 2) 个人而言，就个人来说 |
| strengthen ['streŋθәn] | vt. | 加强，增强，巩固 |
| resolve [ri'zɔlv] | n. | 决心，坚定的信念 |
| support [sә'pɔ:t] | vt. | 1) 支持，拥护 2) 帮助，援助 |
| fend [fend] | vt. | 击退, 保护, 供养 |
| off [ɔf] | ad. | 1) 脱离, 去除 2) 出发, 离开 |
| negative ['negәtiv] | a. | 1) 否定的 2) 消极的，负面的 |
| impact ['impækt] | n. | 1) 撞击，冲撞，冲击力 2) 巨大影响，强大作用 |
| bring [briŋ] | vt. | 1) 带……到某处，带来，取来 2) 提供，供给 |
3.
句子成分分析：
They know | that [under the Trump administration], they risk losing the support (of the United States) [over Ukraine], || while also dealing with the Trump administration's big stick (of tariffs).
句子语法结构详解：
* know 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* risk 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* losing 为动名词，作宾语。
* while 为连词，引导状语从句。
* dealing 为现在分词。
* they 为人称代词主格。administration's 为名词所有格。the 为定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Phrase:
| the United States | 美国 |
| deal with... | 1) 对付， 处理 2) 论及，涉及 |
Vocabulary:
| know [nәu] | vt. | 1) 知道，知悉，了解 2) 认识到，懂得，意识到 |
| under ['ʌndә] | prep. | 1) 在（某年龄）以下 2) 在...下面, 在...下方 |
| trump [trʌmp] | n. | 1) （某些纸牌游戏的一张）王牌，主牌，将牌 2) (trumps)（某些纸牌游戏的）王牌花色，主牌花色 |
| administration [әd,mini'streiʃәn] | n. | 1) （企业、学校等的）管理，行政 2) 施行，执行 |
| risk [risk] | vt. | 1) 冒险做，（明知结果而）大胆做 2) 使……冒风险（或面临危险） |
| lose [lu:z] | vt. | 1) 失去,损失，丧失 2) 丢失,遗失 |
| support [sә'pɔ:t] | n. | 1) 支持，帮助 2) 支援，救助 |
| over ['әuvә] | prep. | 1) 在...上面 2) 在...期间 |
| Ukraine | n. | [地名] 乌克兰 |
| while [hwail] | conj. | 1) 当...的时候:, 在...期间; 2) 而, 然而(表示对比或相反) 3) 虽然 |
| also ['ɔ:lsәu] | ad. | 而且；此外；也；同样 |
| big [big] | a. | 1) （体积、程度、数量等）大的，巨大的 2) 年龄较大的，长大的 |
| stick [stik] | n. | 1) （木质或塑料制成的）棒，棍等 2) 树枝，枯枝 |
| tariff ['tærif] | n. | 1) 关税 2) （旅馆、饭店或服务公司的）价目表，收费表 |
4.
句子成分分析：
[In this way], the United States tried to make its European Allies share all the risks brought about [by "[lifting the ban]"], || while countries (such as Britain and France) were caught [in the dilemma (of wanting to support Biden, but with limited resources, and wanting to avoid risks)] and difficult to choose.
句子语法结构详解：
(brought 为 bring 的过去分词。caught 为 catch 的过去分词。)
* tried 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* to make 为不定式，作宾语。
* share 为不带 to 的不定式，作宾语补足语(或称复合宾语)。
* brought 为过去分词，作后置定语。
* lifting 为现在分词。
* while 为连词，引导状语从句。
* caught 为谓语，采用一般过去时和被动语态。
* 第1个 wanting 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* 第2个 wanting 为动名词。
* to avoid 为不定式，作宾语。
* to choose 为不定式。
* its 为物主代词。were 为助动词。the 为定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Phrase:
| the United States | 美国 |
| bring...about | 1) 导致..., 引起... 2) 使(船）改变方向 |
| such as | 1) 例如，比如 2) 像……那样的，诸如……之类的 |
| be caught in... | 1) 突然遭受..., 陷入... 2) 在(某过程中)被抓到 |
| be difficult to do sth | 难于... |
Vocabulary:
| this [θis] | a. | 1) 这(个) 2) 今,本 |
| way [wei] | n. | 1) 方法，方式，途径 2) 路, 道路，路线 |
| try [trai] | vt. | 1) 试图，想要，设法 2) 试，试用，试做，试验 |
| make [meik] | vt. | 1) 强迫, 迫使，让 2) 做, 制作, 创造，创作, 建造 3) 使出现, 形成 |
| its [its] | a. | 它的 |
| European [,juәrә'pi:әn] | a. | 1) 欧洲的 2) 欧洲人的 |
| ally ['ælai] | n. | 1) 同盟者 2) （the allies）协约国，同盟国 |
| share [ʃєә] | vt. | 1) 分享，共享 2) 共有，合用 |
| all [ɔ:l] | a. | 1) 所有的, 全部的，一切的 2) 整个的 |
| risk [risk] | n. | 1) 危险，风险 2) 危险人物，会带来风险的事物 |
| lift [lift] | vt. | 1) 提起，举起，抬高，吊起 2) 移开，移动 |
| ban [bæn] | n. | 禁令 |
| while [hwail] | conj. | 1) 当...的时候:, 在...期间; 2) 而, 然而(表示对比或相反) 3) 虽然 |
| country ['kʌntri] | n. | 1) 国家 2) 乡村 |
| Britain ['britәn] | n. | 英国 |
| and [ænd] | conj. | 1) 和, 与, 同, 并 2) 然后，接着 |
| France [frɑ:ns] | n. | 法国 |
| dilemma [di'lemә] | n. | （进退两难的）窘境，困境 |
| want [wɔnt] | vi. | 1) 要，想要，希望 2) （用于提出建议）应该 |
| vt. | 1) 要，想要，希望 2) 需要 | |
| support [sә'pɔ:t] | n. | 1) 支持，帮助 2) 支援，救助 |
| but [bʌt] | conj. | 1) 但是 2) 而, 却 |
| limited ['limitid] | a. | 1) 有限的 2) 受（……的）限制 3) (置于公司名后）有限（公司） |
| resource [ri'sɔ:s] | n. | 1) 资源，财力 2) 有助于实现目标的东西，资料 |
| avoid [ә'vɔid] | vt. | 1) 避免，防止 2) 回避，避开，躲避 |
| choose [tʃu:z] | vt. | 1) 选择，挑选，选取 2) 宁愿，情愿，决定 |
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