今年的奥斯卡或许是近年来最缺乏悬念的一届。《奥本海默》获得最佳影片奖的概率，据说已高达99.9%，尚且未知的只剩它究竟可以在13项提名中胜出几项。如果可以获得8项，那会成为自2009以来的最大赢家——上一次带回8座小金人的是《贫民窟的百万富翁》。

再往前追溯的话，2004年的《指环王：王者归来》入围11项，获胜11项；1997年的《英国病人》入围12项，获胜9项；1998年的《泰坦尼克号》入围14项，获胜11项；这些都是真正意义上的“横扫”。《奥本海默》能否跻身其中，或许才是当地时间3月10日晚上（北京时间3月11日上午）颁奖典礼上的最大看点。

基里安·墨菲在《奥本海默》中

《奥本海默》有望拿到7个至10个奖

事实上，近年来奥斯卡上的横扫壮举已越来越少见。2017年的《爱乐之城》创纪录地获得14项提名，原本很被看好，但最终只获得6项奥斯卡奖，不仅在最佳影片大奖上输给《月光男孩》，就连最佳剪辑、最佳服装设计也没拿到。

个中原因恐怕在于奥斯卡自2009年开始，将最佳影片候选作品由五部扩大到了10部。奥斯卡评委也是肉体凡胎，总有恻隐之情，不希望有人彻底空手而归。2009年之前，一部影片登顶，四部影片失意，不少评委会想方设法给这四部影片找些安慰奖。2009年之后，一部影片登顶，九部影片失意，不少评委同样会想方设法给这九部影片找些安慰奖。于是，获奖情况越来越去中心化，出现皆大欢喜的局面。因此对当年最拔尖的作品而言，横扫的难度也就越来越大了。

诺兰导演（中）在《奥本海默》片场

去年的《瞬息全宇宙》共获得7项大奖，已是自《贫民窟的百万富翁》以来的最高纪录。据统计，1940年代的奥斯卡最佳影片，平均下来每部能获得4.4个奖项；1950年代是6.6个；1960年代是5.9个；1970年代是5个；1980年代是5.7个；1990年代是6.6个；2000年代是5.5个。自从上述的改制以来，这个数字落到了3.9个。除了最佳影片奖之外，还能再捎带赢下三座小金人，就算是超过平均值了。

具体而言，今年的《奥本海默》在女配角、服装设计、化妆和发型设计这三个板块上，基本毫无胜算。在改编剧本、音效、艺术指导这三个板块，会面临巨大挑战。在最佳影片、导演、男主角、男配角、摄影、剪辑、配乐等板块，则已是十拿九稳。因此，其获奖总数可能会落在7个至10个之间。

莉莉·格莱斯顿想要创造历史难度不小

再看普通观众比较关心的四个演员奖项。从理论上来说，美国演员工会奖的评委是约16万名工会成员；而奥斯卡奖的评委是约9800名美国电影艺术与科学学院的成员，演员在其中只占14%，也就是千余人而已。两者虽有很大重叠度，但光是靠这千余人，并不能决定奥斯卡奖的归属。

不过，事实就是历来的工会奖得主，最后往往能抱得小金人。究其原因，恐怕奥斯卡非演员评委（即86%的投票人），普遍信赖那些演员们的专业水准，相信他们选出来的人肯定有过人之处；于是，在投票时，便会有意无意照搬工会奖的颁奖结果。不光演员奖项如此，其他诸如摄影、剪辑、音效等奖项类别中，大多数非专业评委也都会照搬各种工会奖的结果。

所以奥斯卡奖结果出炉之前，才会有那么多的所谓风向标奖，也因此每年的奥斯卡颁奖结果里真正意义上的大冷门，一直都是少之又少。去年那一届，据说奥斯卡预测专家们事后复盘，发现最大的冷门竟然只是《西线无战事》击败《巴比伦》获得最佳艺术指导奖。

莉莉·格莱斯顿在《花月杀手》中

今年的美国演员工会奖颁给了《奥本海默》的基里安·墨菲、《花月杀手》的莉莉·格莱斯顿、《奥本海默》的小罗伯特·唐尼和《留校联盟》的达明·乔伊·伦道夫。如果奥斯卡小金人也由这四人获得，等于是延续了过去两届的规律——演员工会奖和奥斯卡奖结果完全相同，且每年都有两位少数族裔演员获奖。

目前看来，四人中最需要上天庇佑的，恐怕是莉莉·格莱斯顿。她面临着来自《可怜的东西》的艾玛·斯通和《坠落的审判》的桑德拉·惠勒的强劲挑战，还有已5次获得奥斯卡提名却从未拿到奖的老将安妮特·贝宁，据说她得到不少同情票加分。不过，若能胜出，格莱斯顿会成为奥斯卡历史上获得该奖的第一位印第安原住民，其历史意义恐怕多少也会影响到评委的决定。

有评论者指出，今年的最佳女主角大乱斗的情状不禁让人想到2019年那一届：《罗马》女主角雅丽扎·阿帕里西奥是墨西哥土著，就像是今年的莉莉·格莱斯顿；《贤妻》的格伦·克洛斯之前六次获得奥斯卡提名却次次空手而回，就像是今年的安妮特·贝宁；最终，却是《宠儿》的奥利维亚·科尔曼笑傲群雌，而她正是《可怜的东西》的导演欧格斯·兰斯莫斯上一位的合作者——好运会延续吗？

剧本奖扑朔迷离

今年的两个剧本奖也有不小看头。剧本奖的风向标首先自然要看美国编剧工会奖的结果。但今年编剧工会奖因为去年好莱坞大罢工的关系，被推迟到了4月14日举行，比奥斯卡晚出。于是，对这近万名奥斯卡评委而言，最佳原创剧本和最佳改编剧本究竟要选谁，便失去了最佳参照，只能自己看着办。

最佳原创剧本的五部候选影片《音乐大师》《过往人生》《五月十二月》《留校联盟》《坠落的审判》。《坠落的审判》虽是戛纳金棕榈奖得主，但奥斯卡评委可不是戛纳评审团，鹿死谁手还很难说。况且，另外四部影片如果获奖，也都完全可以倒推出一大堆的理由。

《坠落的审判》剧照

最佳改编剧本的五部候选影片《芭比》《利益区域》《美国小说》《奥本海默》《可怜的东西》里，最初似乎是《奥本海默》手握优势。然而，作为2023年最受观众欢迎的电影，《芭比》的导演兼编剧格蕾塔·葛韦格在今年奥斯卡上可谓相当落寞，导演奖未能入围，最佳影片奖又肯定竞争不过《奥本海默》，如果评委们有心弥补一下这种缺憾，或许会将最佳改编剧本奖发给葛韦格。不过，在拿到美国独立精神奖最佳剧本奖后，本就获得英国学院奖最佳改编剧本奖的《美国小说》，如今已成了这个板块的领头羊。

《利益区域》冲击最佳国际影片奖

再来看看最佳国际影片奖， 今年共有92个国家和地区提交影片，最终有88部符合资格，数量上不如去年和前年的93部。最终入围的五部候选影片里，代表英国的德语对白电影《利益区域》是目前的领跑者。该片今年共获得五项提名，包括最佳影片、导演、改编剧本、国际影片和音效。有观点认为，它不可能全数败北。因为在奥斯卡的历史上，涉及纳粹大屠杀题材的作品，往往能获得评委的高度关注。除了大家最熟悉的1994年最佳影片得主《辛德勒的名单》，还有《纽伦堡大审判》（1961年）、《歌厅》（1973年）、《苏菲的抉择》（1983年）、《钢琴师》（2004年）等也都是很好的证明。

《利益区域》剧照

所以，既然《利益区域》获得最佳影片、导演、改编剧本的机会不是很大，那就只剩下国际影片和音效两项可以突破了。在最佳音效奖方面，虽然历史上获得该奖的大多是像《沙丘》《壮志凌云2》《1917》这样的效果大片，不过也有过《爆裂鼓手》《金属之声》等小制作问鼎的先例。

所有看过《利益区域》的观众应该都会记得，该片的声音效果设计可谓极有特色，之前已击败《奥本海默》获得了第36届欧洲电影奖最佳音效奖和第77届英国电影学院奖最佳音效奖。不过在本月初揭晓的美国音效协会奖上，《利益区域》未能入围，《奥本海默》拔得头筹，而该奖项确实又是预测奥斯卡最佳音效奖的最大风向标。总之，《利益区域》最终能不能获得最佳国际影片和最佳音效这两座小金人，也值得关注。

在服装设计和艺术指导两大板块上，《芭比》和《可怜的东西》呈齐头并进之势。这两座小金人几乎可以说是今年奥斯卡竞争最激烈、形势最不明朗的两项。

在最佳动画长片板块，《蜘蛛侠：纵横宇宙》的领先优势较为明显，但《你想活出怎样的人生》也并非毫无机会，83岁的宫崎骏能否再登巅峰，值得吉卜力粉丝期待。而他的同胞山崎贵，倒是极有可能凭《哥斯拉-1.0》获得最佳视效奖，让亚洲电影人连续五年都有机会捧起奥斯卡小金人。

（来源：澎湃新闻）

新闻译文：

This year's Oscars may be the least suspenseful in recent years. The probability of "Oppenheimer" winning the Best Picture award is said to be as high as 99.9%, and it is still unknown how many of the 13 nominations it can win. If he could win 8 items, he would become the biggest winner since 2009- the last time he brought back 8 little golden people was Slumdog Millionaire.

Going back further, in 2004, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" was nominated for 11 events and won 11; In 1997, The British patient was nominated for 12 events and won 9; In 1998, Titanic was nominated for 14 events and won 11; These are all true "sweeping". Whether "Oppenheimer" can be included in it may be the biggest highlight of the award ceremony on the evening of March 10th (morning of March 11th Beijing time).

Kirian Murphy in Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer is expected to win 7 to 10 awards

In fact, the sweeping feats at Oscars have become increasingly rare in recent years. In 2017, "City of Love" received a record 14 nominations, which was originally highly anticipated, but ultimately only won 6 Oscars. Not only did it lose to "Moonlight Boy" at the Best Picture Awards, it also failed to win Best Editing and Best Costume Design.

The reason for this may be that since 2009, the Oscars have expanded their Best Picture nominations from five to ten. The Oscar judges are also born with a physical body, always with a sense of compassion, and do not want anyone to return completely empty handed. Before 2009, one film topped the charts and four films were disappointing. Many judges tried their best to find some consolation awards for these four films. After 2009, one film topped the charts and nine films were disappointing. Many judges also tried their best to find some consolation awards for these nine films. As a result, the award-winning situation became increasingly decentralized, resulting in a situation where everyone was happy. Therefore, for the most outstanding works of that year, the difficulty of sweeping became increasingly high.

Director Nolan (middle) on the set of Oppenheimer

Last year's Everything Everywhere All at Once won a total of 7 awards, the highest since Slumdog Millionaire. according to statistics, in the 1940s, the Academy Award for Best Picture received an average of 4.4 awards per film; In the 1950s, there were 6.6; In the 1960s, there were 5.9; In the 1970s, there were 5; In the 1980s, there were 5.7; In the 1990s, there were 6.6; In the 2000s, there were 5.5. Since the aforementioned restructuring, this number has dropped to 3.9. In addition to the Best Picture award, they can also win three more Little Golden Men, even if it exceeds the average.

Specifically, this year's Oppenheimer has no chance of winning in the three sectors of female supporting role, costume design, makeup and hairstyle design. In the three areas of script adaptation, sound effects, and art guidance, there will be huge challenges. In the best film, director, actor, supporting role, photography, editing, music and other sectors, it is already secure. Therefore, its total number of awards may fall between 7 and 10.

Lily Gladstone finds it difficult to create history

Looking at the four actor awards that ordinary audiences are more concerned about. In theory, the judges for the Screen Actors Guild Awards are approximately 160000 union members; The judges for the Oscars are about 9800 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in the United States, with actors accounting for only 14%, which is just over a thousand people. Although there is a significant overlap between the two, relying solely on these over a thousand people cannot determine the ownership of the Oscar.

However, the fact is that the winners of union awards have always been able to win small gold medals in the end. After investigating the reasons, it is feared that Oscar non actor judges (i.e. 86% of voters) generally trust the professional level of those actors and believe that the people they choose must have outstanding qualities; So, during voting, they will intentionally or unintentionally copy the award results of the union award. Not only for actor awards, but in other categories such as photography, editing, and sound effects, most non professional judges also copy the results of various union awards.

So before the Oscar results are announced, there will be so many so-called wind vane awards, and therefore the truly obscure ones in the annual Oscar results have always been very rare. Last year, it is said that Oscar prediction experts conducted a retrospective and found that the biggest surprise was that "No Battle on the Western Front" defeated "Babylon" to win the Best Art direction Award.

Lily Gladstone in Flower and Moon Assassin

This year's Screen Actors Guild Awards went to Kirian Murphy from "Oppenheimer", Lily Gladstone from "Flower and Moon Assassin", Robert Downey Jr. from "Oppenheimer", and Damien Joey Randolph from "Staying in League". If these four Oscars were also won by these four people, it would be like continuing the pattern of the past two editions - the Actors Guild Award and the Oscar results are exactly the same, and two minority actors win each year.

At present, it seems that Lily Gladstone is probably the most in need of divine protection among the four people. She faces strong challenges from Emma Stone from "Poor Thing" and Sandra Wheeler from "Trial of the Fallen", as well as veteran Anita Benning, who has been nominated for an Oscar five times but has never received an award. It is said that she has received many sympathy votes and extra points. However, if they can win, Gladstone will become the first native American in Oscar history to receive the award, and its historical significance may also affect the judges' decision to some extent.

Some commentators have pointed out that the chaotic scene of this year's Best Actress cannot help but remind people of the 2019 edition: the protagonist of "Rome", Ariza Aparicio, is a Mexican indigenous, just like this year's Lily Gladstone; Glenn Klose from "The Good Wife" has received six Oscar nominations before but returned empty handed time and time again, just like this year's Annette Benning; In the end, it was Olivia Coleman from "Beloved" who stood out with a smile, and she was the previous collaborator of director Owen Ramos from "Poor Thing" - will good luck continue?

The script award is shrouded in mystery

This year's two script awards are also quite impressive. The benchmark for the script award naturally depends first on the results of the Writers Guild Award in the United States. But this year's Writers Guild Awards were postponed to April 14th due to last year's Hollywood strike, which was later than the Oscars. So, for these nearly 10000 Oscar judges, the choice of the best original script and the best adapted script has lost its best reference and can only be decided by themselves.

The five candidate films for Best Original Screenplay are "Music Master", "Past Life", "May and December", "Staying in School Alliance", and "Fallen Judgment". Although "The Fallen Judgment" is the winner of the Cannes Palme d'Or, the Oscar judges are not the Cannes jury, and it is difficult to say who will win or lose. Moreover, if the other four films win, they can all come up with a bunch of reasons.

Stills from "The Fall of Judgment"

In the five candidate films for Best Adapted Screenplay, Barbie, Regions of Interest, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, and Poor Thing, it initially seemed that Oppenheimer had the upper hand. However, as the most popular movie among audiences in 2023, the director and screenwriter of "Barbie", Greta Geweig, was quite lonely at this year's Oscars. The director's award was not nominated, and the Best Picture award was definitely not enough to compete with "Oppenheimer". If the judges are willing to make up for this deficiency, they may send the Best Adapted Screenplay award to Geweig. However, after winning the Best Screenplay award at the American independent spirit Awards, "American Novel", which had already won the Best Adapted Screenplay award at the British Academy Awards, has now become the leader in this field.

"Regions of Interest" Strikes for Best International Film Award

Let's take a look at the Best International Film Award. This year, a total of 92 countries and regions submitted films, and ultimately 88 of them qualified, which is lower than the 93 films from last year and the previous year. Among the five finalists, the German speaking film "Regions of Interest" representing the UK is currently the leader. The film received five nominations this year, including Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, International Film, and Sound Effects. Some argue that it cannot all be defeated. Because in the history of Oscar, works related to the Nazi Holocaust often received high attention from judges. In addition to the most familiar 1994 Best Picture winner "Schindler's List," there are also good examples such as "The Nuremberg Trials" (1961), "The Hall" (1973), "Sophie's Choice" (1983), "The Pianist" (2004), etc.

Stills of "Regions of Interest"

So, since the chances of winning the Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay for "Region of Interest" are not very high, only international film and sound effects can be broken through. In terms of the Best Sound Effects Award, although most of the winners in history have been blockbuster films like Dune, brave 2, and 1917, there have also been precedents of small productions such as Burst Drummer and Metal Sound winning.

All viewers who have watched "Regions of Interest" should remember that the sound design of the film is extremely distinctive, having previously defeated "Oppenheimer" to win the Best Sound Award at the 36th European Film Awards and the 77th British Academy Film Awards. However, at the American Sound Effects association Awards announced earlier this month, "Regions of Interest" was not nominated, and "Oppenheimer" took the lead, which is indeed the biggest predictor of the Academy Award for Best Sound Effects. In short, it is also worth paying attention to whether "Regions of Interest" will ultimately win the Best International Film and Best Sound Effects awards.

In the two major areas of fashion design and art guidance, "Barbie" and "Poor Thing" are advancing side by side. These two little golden figures can almost be said to be the two most fiercely competitive and uncertain Oscars of this year.

In the Best Animated feature section, Spider Man has a clear lead, but there is also a chance for "What kind of life do you want to live?" Whether 83 year old Hayao Miyazaki can reach the peak again is worth looking forward to by Ghibli fans. And his compatriot, Gui Yamazaki, is highly likely to win the Best Visual Effects Award for "Godzilla 1.0", giving Asian filmmakers the opportunity to win the Oscar for five consecutive years.

(Source: Pengpai News)

重点词汇

• 近年来 in recent years

• 奥本海默 Oppenheim ; Oppenheimer ; Robert Oppenheimer ; J. Robert Oppenheimer ; born-oppenheimer

• 尚且 even

• 上一次 last time

• 金人 Golden Man ; statue of Buddha ; metal image/statue ; the Nǚ zhēn

• 百万富翁 millionaire ; Slumdog Millionaire ; Who Wants to Be a Millionaire

• 指环 ring ; (finger)ring

• 王者 A king ; emperor, king ; true royal sovereign

• 英国病人 The English Patient

句子成分分析：

So, <since thechances (of winning the Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay [for "Region (of Interest ")are not 

very high]>,) only international film and sound effects can be broken through.

句子语法结构详解：

(broken 为 break 的过去分词。best 为 good 的最高级形式)

* so 为连词，引导状语从句。
* winning 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* Adapted 为过去分词。
* are 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* high 为形容词作表语。
* broken 为谓语，采用被动语态。
* can 为情态动词。be 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子成分分析：

[In the two major areas (of fashion)] design and art guidance, "Barbie" and "Poor Thing" are advancing [side by side].

句子语法结构详解：

* advancing 为谓语，采用现在进行时。
* are 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

http://www.fcdict.com/offensive
http://www.fcdict.com/arsenic
http://www.fcdict.com/sash
http://www.fcdict.com/kepler
http://www.fcdict.com/pushcart
http://www.fcdict.com/express delivery
http://www.fcdict.com/barracks
http://www.fcdict.com/lebkuchen
http://www.fcdict.com/abuse of power
http://www.fcdict.com/hope
http://www.fcdict.com/mammiferous
http://www.fcdict.com/bulk pack
http://www.fcdict.com/cos
http://www.fcdict.com/graciousness
http://www.fcdict.com/high frequency
http://www.fcdict.com/seeking
http://www.fcdict.com/comstockery
http://www.fcdict.com/Munich
http://www.fcdict.com/measure against
http://www.fcdict.com/professional

以上是秒词邦为您整理编写的文章《奥斯卡颁奖礼举办在即，《奥本海默》能拿几个奖？ ——秒词邦背单词app》的全部内容。秒词邦是国内权威分题型分考点背诵中高考/四六级考研/专升本/出国单词的专业单词软件。扫描如下小程序码，进入秒词邦官方小程序获取更多英语相关资料！ 【关键词：高考单词；高考英语；高中单词；高中英语；单词app；单词软件；记单词app；记单词软件；背单词软件；背单词app；英语单词；四六级单词；四六级英语；四六级单词app；四六级单词软件；考研单词app；考研单词软件；核心单词；高考冲刺复习；高考英语教材；高考英语真题；四六级真题；四六级试题；考研真题；考研英语单词；考研英语真题】