"为中国争取这一地位时美资企业出过力，现在他们很担心……"
（原标题："为中国争取这一地位时美资企业出过力，现在他们很担心……"）
原创 王慧 观察者网
► 文 观察者网 王慧
特朗普赢得美国大选之后，中美关系的未来发展引起广泛关注。在这一背景下，在华美资企业有什么想法？他们最关心的是什么？
在由复旦大学美国研究中心主办，上海市美国问题研究所、上海市美国学会协办的“上海智库论坛·2024”上，上海美国商会会长郑艺谈及了上述话题。
他说，未来三到五年，美资企业在华经营最关心的有三点：第一，中美关系；第二，中国经济的复苏发展；第三，中国国内竞争压力大，外资优势变得不再那么明显。
在谈及中美关系对在华美资企业的影响时，郑艺首先提到接下来特朗普可能发起的贸易战。
他认为，增加关税会成为特朗普2.0时期处理经贸问题的主要工具。升级对华贸易冲突有几种可能：
第一，针对中国对美出口商品征收多达60%的关税；第二，取消中国永久正常贸易关系（PNTR）地位；第三，阻止中国商品通过第三国转口至美国。
“现在美国国会有些人在推动取消中国的PNTR地位，我很担心，因为一旦通过，会形成立法，很难改变。”
郑艺说：“当年为中国争取最惠国待遇的时候，很多美资企业都出过力，包括我的前老板、美国国际集团当时的掌门人格林伯格。大家一起做了很多工作，最终促成中国的最惠国待遇，可现在又面临失去这一正常贸易待遇的可能。”
复旦大学美国研究中心副主任宋国友（左）、上海美商会会长郑艺（右）上海美国商会
美国对非PNTR国家的商品征收的关税从最低35%到最高100%不等。
根据1999年中美就中国加入WTO达成的双边协议，2000年9月，美国国会通过给予中国PNTR地位的法案。2001年12月27日，美国正式宣布给予中国PNTR地位，结束了美国国会每年对给予中国正常贸易关系地位进行年度审议的历史。
美媒报道称，目前只有四个国家不享受美国的PNTR待遇——俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、朝鲜和古巴。朝鲜和古巴从未拿到过这一待遇，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的PNTR地位则是在2022年俄乌冲突发生之后被取消。
当地时间11月19日，美国国会“美中经济与安全评估委员会”（USCC）向国会递交了2024年度报告，首次建议取消中国的PNTR地位，后者长期以来被视为中美贸易关系的基石。
前不久，美国国会众议院“美中战略竞争特别委员会”主席约翰·穆莱纳尔（John Moolenaar）也推出法案，要求正式终止中国的PNTR地位。今年9月，美国国会参议院也有议员推出类似法案，关键发起人之一就是被特朗普提名为国务卿的卢比奥。
随着共和党拿下参众两院多数席次，特朗普全面执政，此案通过的可能性大增。
目前，美国对非最惠国关税平均税率为42%。如果美国取消中国PNTR地位，叠加301条款下约20%的关税，那么对华平均关税将升至60%以上。
对此，外交部发言人林剑表示，根据中美双方就中国加入世贸组织达成的协议，美国2001年宣布给予中国永久正常贸易关系地位。美方一些政客妄图开历史倒车，将中美经贸关系拉回冷战时期，这违反世贸组织规则，只会损害中美两国共同利益，干扰全球经济运行。
“我们敦促美方有关议员切实遵守世贸组织规则，停止损人不利己的言行。”林剑说。
延伸阅读
专家：若美国开打"贸易战" 中国有个最大的杀手锏
双脚还没踏进白宫，美国当选总统特朗普就迫不及待地挥舞起“关税大棒”，开局先指向了墨西哥、加拿大和中国。
特朗普发帖宣布，“为打击非法移民、犯罪和毒品”，他会在明年1月20日，也就是上任的第一天签署行政命令，对进口自墨西哥和加拿大的所有产品征收25%关税，并对进口自中国的商品额外加征10%的关税。
特朗普已经迫不及待地挥舞起“关税大棒”（资料图）
“一棒”下去，市场巨震，引起世界范围内的普遍担忧。
“目前，美国对中国输美商品的平均关税是19.3%，在这个基础上加征10%，中国输美商品关税就达到30%左右了。”中国国际经济交流中心总经济师陈文玲告诉观察者网，中墨加是美国最大的三个贸易伙伴，如果特朗普上任后对这三国征收25-30%高关税，不仅将正式拉开贸易战的序幕，也将给中国创造与美国贸易伙伴进行谈判斡旋的空间。
陈文玲说：“不管特朗普采取怎样的贸易战打法，天都塌不下来。不可能是美方单方面赢，也不可能只有美国制裁其他国家的权力，其他国家都坐以待毙。中国可以单兵作战，也可以与世界更多国家，包括美国盟友相互降低关税，形成抵御特朗普高关税的全球维护贸易规则与秩序的统一战线。”
她认为，中国目前已成为140多个国家的最大贸易伙伴，出口市场有了更大扩展。现在的形势与特朗普上一任期对华发起贸易战时相比，对中国更有利。
在与观察者网的对话中，陈文玲对特朗普上任后贸易战可能的打法、影响和中国的应对做了详尽分析。
特朗普的贸易战“工具”
特朗普上任后打贸易战几乎没有悬念，重点是对中国的贸易战他会怎么打？可能会用到哪些“工具”？
对此，陈文玲提到了五个方面：
首先，需要特别注意的是，特朗普在竞选中提到的，他若当选，将对中国商品征收60%关税，对所有进口商品征收10%至20%的普遍关税。
其次是，一些美国政客正在推动的，可能取消中国的永久正常贸易关系（PNTR）地位。美国对非PNTR国家的商品征收的关税从最低35%到最高100%不等。
根据1999年中美就中国加入WTO达成的双边协议，2000年9月，美国国会通过给予中国PNTR地位的法案。2001年12月27日，美国正式宣布给予中国PNTR地位，结束了美国国会每年对给予中国正常贸易关系地位进行年度审议的历史。
美媒报道称，目前只有四个国家不享受美国的最惠国待遇——俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、朝鲜和古巴。朝鲜和古巴从未拿到过这一待遇，俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的PNTR地位则是在2022年俄乌冲突发生之后被取消。
当地时间11月19日，美国国会“美中经济与安全评估委员会”（USCC）向国会递交了2024年度报告，首次建议取消中国的PNTR地位，后者长期以来被视为中美贸易关系的基石。
前不久，美国国会众议院“美中战略竞争特别委员会”主席约翰·穆莱纳尔（John Moolenaar）也推出法案，要求正式终止中国的PNTR地位。今年9月，美国国会参议院也有议员推出类似法案，关键发起人之一就是被特朗普提名为国务卿的卢比奥。
随着共和党拿下参众两院多数席次，特朗普全面执政，此案通过的可能性大增。
目前，美国对非最惠国关税平均税率为42%。如果美国取消中国PNTR地位，叠加301条款下约20%的关税，那么对华平均关税将升至60%以上。
南华早报预计，特朗普正式上任前，美国进口商将抢先从中国囤货。图为2018年至2024年10月，中国每月对美出口额（《南华早报》制图）
第三，特朗普有可能援引《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）加征关税。
IEEPA授权美国总统在国家面临紧急情况时，可以对各种经济交易实施广泛管制，为美国总统提供了在紧急情况下对进口商品加征关税的法律工具。总统可根据IEEPA直接采取措施，无需要经过国会立法或特定的调查流程，也没有理论税率上限。
第四，特朗普可能依据美国国内法的相关条款来打贸易战，比如发起232、201、301、337调查等，来遏制和打压中国以及美国认为应该打压的对象。
第五，特朗普可能通过新的立法来打贸易战。
比如说，他在竞选期间就宣布，他计划推出《特朗普对等贸易法》。如果一个国家对美国商品征收了一定比例的关税，美国也可以以牙还牙，对该国商品征收相同比例的关税。
“根据《特朗普对等贸易法》，其他国家将有两个选择——将取消对美国的关税，或者他们将向我们支付数千亿美元，美国将获得绝对财富。”特朗普说。
陈文玲认为，这个法律可能会通过，并提高美国的整体关税水平。另外，美国还可能会要求世贸组织重置美国的约束关税水平。
“以上五种方式特朗普可能并用，也可能用其中的一条。总之，对中国商品征收的税率大概率不会低于60%。”陈文玲说。
贸易战将会产生哪些影响？
“首先将造成全球贸易体系的紊乱。”陈文玲说，目前WTO陷入瘫痪，全球贸易“裁判”缺位，贸易保护主义盛行。世行的数据显示，2023年全球实施了近3000项贸易限制措施，约为2015年的5倍。美国若毫无约束地对全球贸易开战，会使全球贸易体系进一步紊乱。
总的来看，她认为，特朗普的贸易战将导致“两个下降、两个上升”：
首先将导致美国的关税税源大幅度下降。
“如果对中国加征60%-100%的高额关税，有关算法显示，可能导致美国进口中国商品下降60%-70%，有的甚至说会到现在规模的1%。换句话说，你加这么高的关税，中国商品就不出口到美国，那你收谁的关税呢？同样特朗普也要加征其他国家商品的关税，其他国家规避高关税，也必然得采用市场转移。”陈文玲说。
另外，她认为，美国出口竞争力将大幅的下降。
“根据有关研究机构的计算，如果中国、欧盟及其他国家都对美国加税实施对等报复，那么美国的出口将会下降23.9%、GDP会下降3.4%。因此，这场贸易战会对美国经济带来重创，同时冲击其他国家经济。世界经济在经历过三年疫情后刚刚恢复，又会重新被推到衰退的深渊。”
谈及“两个上升”，陈文玲说，首先美国的政府债务将会上升。
美国财政部日前发布的最新数据显示，美国国债总额首次突破36万亿美元，创历史新高。
美国国债总额突破36万亿美元，创历史新高，图为福克斯新闻网报道截图
根据美国独立研究机构联邦预算问责委员会的测算，按照中等成本估计，特朗普的计划将在10年内导致政府债务增加7.5万亿美元，最坏情形下将增加15.15万亿美元。
“我觉得7.5万亿美元就是未来十年美国债务的底线，可能会比这个更高。”陈文玲说，特朗普的税收政策可以用“对外加税、对内减税”来概括。对外加税即上文提到的加征高关税，对内减税则主要是特朗普在竞选期间承诺的，将延续2017年的税改法案。
这项法案大幅降低了个人所得税和企业税，特别是将公司税率从35%降低到了21%。在这个任期，他希望将美国企业税率从目前的21%降至15%。
陈文玲认为，特朗普的这两项税收政策会导致关税收入和国内税收收入同时下降。当然，也可能会使一些企业回归，但是产业链、供应链转移、企业搬家都不是那么容易的事。
“像台积电，从特朗普第一任的时候就开始在亚利桑那州建工厂，到现在第一个工厂还没有开工。所以产业链、供应链的重构，不是政府号召，或者谁有主观愿望就能回来的，它是一个历史过程。单一的工厂搬迁都不那么容易，如果想在一个国家形成一个完全的产业链供应链，那是非常困难的。”
“加上现在美国的制造业仅占其GDP比重不到11%，所以特朗普想通过贸易的手段让整个制造业重振，我觉得几乎是达不到的，只能增加政府的债务。”陈文玲说。
她认为，美国消费者物价指数也会大幅度上升，通胀会卷土重来。“彼得森研究所的研究显示，特朗普对中国商品加征的高额关税推高了通胀1.3个百分点。耶伦在国会作证时几次提出，特朗普加征的高额关税94%是由美国企业和美国消费者承担。”
比如，根据国会预算办公室的一项研究，特朗普2018年1月到2020年1月加征的关税造成的美国产出损失和消费品价格升高给消费者带来的损失合计为2020年平均每个家庭1277美元。
全美零售联合会的研究报告也明确指出，如果说新一轮激进关税政策落地，美国消费者每年可能损失780亿美元的消费能力。
耶鲁大学预算实验室的估计指出，在对华征收60%关税、对其他贸易伙伴征收10%关税的情况下，一个美国家庭年收入可能减少2576美元；如果特朗普兑现征收20%的全球关税和对墨西哥部分商品征收200%关税的言论，一个美国家庭年收入可能减少7600美元。
左翼智库“美国进步中心”今年8月的一份预估报告称，特朗普的新关税政策可能会导致消费者每年增加近4000美元的成本。
翻译：
(Original title: "American companies helped China gain this status, and now they are worried..." )
Original Wang Hui observer network
► Wen Guanchang Wang Hui
After Trump's victory in the US presidential election, the future development of China-Us relations has attracted wide attention. In this context, what are the ideas of Huamei Capital enterprises? What do they care about most?
Zheng Yi, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, spoke about the above topic at the "Shanghai Think Tank Forum 2024" sponsored by the center for American Studies at Fudan University and co-organized by the Shanghai Institute of American Studies and the Shanghai American Society.
He said that in the next three to five years, American companies operating in China are most concerned about three things: first, China-Us relations; Second, China's economic recovery and development; Third, China's domestic competitive pressure, the advantage of foreign investment has become less obvious.
When talking about the impact of Sino-US relations on Chinese companies, Zheng Yi first mentioned the trade war that Trump may launch next.
He believes that increasing tariffs will become the main tool to deal with economic and trade issues in the Trump 2.0 era. There are several possibilities for escalating the trade conflict with China:
First, tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese exports to the United States; Second, cancel China's Permanent normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status; Third, stop the re-export of Chinese goods to the United States through third countries.
"Now some people in the US Congress are pushing to cancel China's PNTR status. I am very worried because once it is passed, it will form legislation and it will be difficult to change."
Zheng Yi said: "When we fought for China's most-favored-nation status, many American companies helped, including my former boss, Alan Greenberg, who ran AIG at the time. "We have done a lot of work together to achieve MFN status for China, but now we are facing the possibility of losing this normal trade status."
Song Guoyou, Deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University (left), and Zheng Yi, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai (right)
U.S. tariffs on goods from non-PNTR countries range from a minimum of 35 percent to a maximum of 100 percent.
In accordance with the bilateral agreement reached between China and the United States on China's accession to the WTO in 1999, the US Congress passed the act granting China PNTR status in September 2000. On December 27, 2001, the United States officially announced the granting of PNTR status to China, ending the history of the annual review of the granting of normal trade relations status to China by the US Congress.
Currently, only four countries do not enjoy the PNTR treatment of the United States - Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Cuba. North Korea and Cuba never received this status, while Russia and Belarus had their PNTR status revoked after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
On November 19 local time, the U.S. Congress 'U.S.-China Economic and security Review Commission (USCC) submitted its 2024 annual report to Congress, which for the first time recommended removing China's PNTR status, which has long been regarded as the cornerstone of Sino-U.S. trade relations.
Not long ago, John Moolenaar, chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives' Special Committee on U.S.-China Strategic Competition, also introduced a bill calling for the formal termination of China's PNTR status. In September this year, the US Senate also introduced a similar bill, and one of the key sponsors was Rubio, who was nominated by Trump as secretary of state.
With Republicans winning majorities in both the House and Senate and Trump fully in office, the chances of the case passing have increased.
Currently, the average U.S. tariff rate on non-MFN is 42 percent. If the United States removes China's PNTR status and adds about 20 percent of the tariffs under section 301, the average tariff on China will rise to more than 60 percent.
In response, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that according to the agreement reached between the two sides on China's accession to the World Trade Organization, the United States announced in 2001 that it would grant China permanent normal trade relations status. Some US politicians are trying to turn back the wheel of history and drag China-Us economic and trade relations back to the Cold War era, which violates WTO rules and will only harm the common interests of China and the US and disrupt the global economy.
"We urge the relevant US lawmakers to earnestly abide by WTO rules and stop words and deeds that harm others but do not serve their own interests." Lin Jian said.
Extended reading
Expert: If the United States starts a "trade war", China has the biggest Trump card
Before he even stepped into the White House, US President-elect Donald Trump could not wait to wield the "big stick of tariffs", starting with Mexico, Canada and China.
In a post, Trump announced that "to combat illegal immigration, crime and drugs," he would sign an executive order on Jan. 20, his first day in office, imposing a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10 percent on imports from China.
Trump has been eager to wield the "big stick of tariffs" (file photo)
"One stick" down, the market shock, causing widespread concern around the world.
"At present, the average US tariff on Chinese imports is 19.3 per cent. If we add 10 per cent to that, the tariff on Chinese imports will reach about 30 per cent." Chen Wenling, chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, told the Observer network that China, Mexico and Canada are the three largest trading partners of the United States, and if Trump imposes 25-30% high tariffs on the three countries after taking office, it will not only officially open the trade war, but also create space for China to negotiate with U.S. trading partners.
Chen Wenling said: "No matter what kind of trade war Trump adopts, the sky will not fall." It is impossible for the US to win unilaterally, and it is impossible for the US to have the power to sanction other countries, and other countries are sitting on their hands. China can fight alone, or it can reduce tariffs with more countries in the world, including US Allies, and form a united front to defend global trade rules and order against Trump's high tariffs."
She believes that China has now become the largest trading partner of more than 140 countries, and its export market has expanded further. The situation is more favorable to China now than it was during Trump's last term when he launched a trade war with China.
In a dialogue with the Observer network, Chen Wenling made a detailed analysis of the possible play, impact and China's response to the trade war after Trump took office.
Trump's trade war 'tool'
After Trump took office, there is almost no suspense in the trade war, the focus is on how he will fight the trade war against China. What "tools" might be used?
In this regard, Chen Wenling mentioned five aspects:
First, it should be noted that Trump mentioned in the campaign that if elected, he would impose a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods and a general tariff of 10 to 20 percent on all imports.
Second, some US politicians are pushing for the possible removal of China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. U.S. tariffs on goods from non-PNTR countries range from a minimum of 35 percent to a maximum of 100 percent.
In accordance with the bilateral agreement reached between China and the United States on China's accession to the WTO in 1999, the US Congress passed the act granting China PNTR status in September 2000. On December 27, 2001, the United States officially announced the granting of PNTR status to China, ending the history of the annual review of the granting of normal trade relations status to China by the US Congress.
Currently, only four countries do not enjoy most-favored-nation status from the United States - Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Cuba. North Korea and Cuba never received this status, while Russia and Belarus had their PNTR status revoked after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.
On November 19 local time, the U.S. Congress 'U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) submitted its 2024 annual report to Congress, which for the first time recommended removing China's PNTR status, which has long been regarded as the cornerstone of Sino-U.S. trade relations.
Not long ago, John Moolenaar, chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives' Special Committee on U.S.-China Strategic Competition, also introduced a bill calling for the formal termination of China's PNTR status. In September this year, the US Senate also introduced a similar bill, and one of the key sponsors was Rubio, who was nominated by Trump as secretary of state.
With Republicans winning majorities in both the House and Senate and Trump fully in office, the chances of the case passing have increased.
Currently, the average U.S. tariff rate on non-MFN is 42 percent. If the United States removes China's PNTR status and adds about 20 percent of the tariffs under Section 301, the average tariff on China will rise to more than 60 percent.
The South China Morning Post expects that before Trump officially takes office, US importers will be the first to stock up on goods from China. The chart shows China's monthly exports to the US from 2018 to October 2024 (SCMP)
Third, Trump could invoke the International emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs.
IEEPA authorizes the President of the United States to impose broad controls on a wide range of economic transactions in times of national emergency, providing the president with the legal tools to impose tariffs on imported goods in times of emergency. The President can act directly under IEEPA, without the need for congressional legislation or a specific investigative process, and without a theoretical tax cap.
Fourth, Trump may fight a trade war in accordance with the relevant provisions of US domestic law, such as launching 232, 201, 301, 337 investigations, etc., to contain and suppress China and the objects that the United States thinks should be suppressed.
Fifth, Trump may fight a trade war through new legislation.
For example, he announced during the campaign that he planned to introduce the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act. If a country imposes a certain percentage of tariffs on American goods, the United States can retaliate by imposing the same percentage of tariffs on that country's goods.
"Under the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, other countries will have two choices - they will remove their tariffs on the United States, or they will pay us hundreds of billions of dollars and the United States will get absolute wealth." "Mr. Trump said.
Chen believes the law is likely to pass and raise overall tariffs in the United States. In addition, the United States may also ask the World Trade organization to reset the level of U.S. bound tariffs.
"Trump may or may not use any of these five approaches. In short, there is a high probability that the tax rate on Chinese goods will not be lower than 60 percent. Chen Wenling said.
What will be the effects of the trade war?
"The first is disruption of the global trading system." Chen Wenling said that at present, the WTO is paralyzed, the global trade "judgment" is absent, and trade protectionism is prevalent. According to the World Bank, nearly 3,000 trade-restrictive measures were implemented globally in 2023, about five times as many as in 2015. An unfettered US war on global trade would further disrupt the global trading system.
Overall, she believes that Trump's trade war will lead to "two down and two up" :
First, it will lead to a significant reduction in the source of American tariffs.
"If a high tariff of 60%-100% is imposed on China, the relevant algorithm shows that it may lead to a 60%-70% drop in US imports of Chinese goods, and some even say that it will reach 1% of the current scale." In other words, if you impose such a high tariff, Chinese goods will not be exported to the United States, then whose tariff will you charge? Similarly, Trump also wants to impose tariffs on other countries' goods, and other countries will inevitably use market transfer to avoid high tariffs." Chen Wenling said.
In addition, she believes that the United States export competitiveness will be significantly reduced.
"According to the calculations of relevant research institutions, if China, the EU and other countries were to retaliate in kind against the US tax increase, then US exports would fall by 23.9% and GDP would fall by 3.4%." Therefore, this trade war will deal a heavy blow to the US economy, while hitting the economies of other countries. The world economy, just recovering from three years of COVID-19, will be pushed back into recession."
Speaking of "two rises", Chen Wenling said that first, the government debt of the United States will rise.
According to the latest data released by the US Treasury Department, the total national debt of the United States has exceeded 36 trillion dollars for the first time, reaching a new record high.
The total national debt of the United States exceeded 36 trillion dollars, a record high, the picture is a screenshot of the Fox News report
According to the Federal Budget Accountability Board, an independent research group, Trump's plan would add $7.5 trillion to government debt over 10 years under a mid-cost estimate, and $15.15 trillion in a worst-case scenario.
"I think $7.5 trillion is the bottom line for the U.S. debt over the next 10 years, and it could go higher than that." Chen Wenling said that Trump's tax policy can be summarized as "additional taxes and internal tax cuts." For the additional taxes, that is, the high tariffs mentioned above, the internal tax cuts are mainly Trump's promise during the campaign, which will continue the 2017 tax reform bill.
The bill significantly reduced personal income taxes and corporate taxes, notably lowering the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. In this term, he wants to cut the U.S. corporate tax rate to 15% from the current 21%.
Chen Wenling believes that Trump's two tax policies will lead to a simultaneous decline in tariff revenue and domestic tax revenue. Of course, it may also make some enterprises return, but the industrial chain, supply chain transfer, and enterprise moving are not so easy.
"Like TSMC, from the time of Trump's first term, it began to build a factory in Arizona, and now the first factory has not been started." Therefore, the reconstruction of the industrial chain and supply chain is not a call from the government, or anyone who has a subjective desire can come back, it is a historical process. It is not easy to move a single factory, and it is very difficult to form a complete industrial chain supply chain in one country."
"In addition, the manufacturing industry in the United States only accounts for less than 11% of its GDP, so Trump wants to revive the entire manufacturing industry through trade means, I think it is almost impossible to achieve, and can only increase the government's debt." Chen Wenling said.
She believes that the U.S. consumer price index will also rise sharply, and inflation will return. "According to the Peterson Institute, Trump's steep tariffs on Chinese goods have pushed up inflation by 1.3 percentage points. In her congressional testimony, Yellen said several times that 94 percent of Trump's tariffs are borne by American businesses and American consumers."
For example, according to a study by the Congressional Budget Office, the combined cost to consumers of lost US output and higher prices for consumer goods from Trump's tariffs imposed between January 2018 and January 2020 amounts to an average of $1,277 per household in 2020.
The National Retail Federation's research report also clearly pointed out that if a new round of aggressive tariff policies are implemented, American consumers may lose $78 billion in spending power each year.
The Yale Budget Lab estimates that a US household could lose $2,576 in annual income under a 60 per cent tariff on China and a 10 per cent tariff on other trading partners. If Trump follows through on his talk of imposing a 20 percent global tariff and a 200 percent tariff on some Mexican goods, an American family could lose $7,600 in annual income.
An August estimate from the Center for American Progress, a left-wing think tank, said Trump's new tariffs could lead to nearly $4,000 a year in higher costs for consumers.
句子分析：
1.
句子成分分析：
"If a high tariff (of 60%-100%) is imposed on China, || the relevant algorithm shows | that it may lead to a 60%-70% drop [in US imports (of Chinese goods)], || and some even say | that it will reach 1% (of the current scale)."
句子语法结构详解：
* if 为连词，引导条件状语从句。
* imposed 为谓语，采用一般现在时和被动语态。
* 第1个 the 开头为陈述句。
* shows 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* 第1个 that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* lead 为谓语。
* and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* say 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* 第2个 that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* reach 为谓语，采用一般将来时。
* may, will 为情态动词。us 为人称代词宾格。some 为不定代词。is 为助动词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Phrase:
| impose...on... | 1) 把...强加于... 2) 强迫...接受...， 强制...实行... |
| lead to... | 1) 导致..., 造成... 2) 通向..., 通往... |
Vocabulary:
| if [if] | conj. | 1) 如果, 倘若 2) 是否 |
| high [hai] | a. | 1) 高的 2) 有某高度的 |
| tariff ['tærif] | n. | 1) 关税 2) （旅馆、饭店或服务公司的）价目表，收费表 |
| China ['tʃainә] | n. | 中国 |
| relevant ['relivәnt] | a. | 1) 有价值的，有意义的 2) 紧密相关的，切题的 |
| algorithm ['ælgәriðm] | n. | 算法；计算程序 |
| show [ʃәu] | vt. | 1) 显示出，流露出（情感、表情等） 2) 表明，显示, 证明 |
| drop [drɔp] | n. | 1) 下跌，减少 2) 滴，水滴 |
| US [ʌs] | abbr | ( = United States) 美国 |
| import ['impɔ:t] | n. | 1) 进口，输入的产品（或劳务） 2) （产品、劳务的）进口，输入，引进 |
| Chinese [tʃai'ni:z] | a. | 1) 中国的 2) 中国人的 |
| goods [guds] | n. | 1) 货品 2) 私人财产 |
| some [sʌm] | pron | 一些 |
| even ['i:vәn] | ad. | 1) 甚至,即使 2) (用于加强比较)甚至更, 愈加 |
| say [sei] | vt. | 1) 说，讲，告诉 2) 比方说，假设 |
| reach [ri:tʃ] | vt. | 1) 达到,提升到,进入(新水平/阶段) 2) 到达, 抵达（某地,某点位） |
| current ['kʌrәnt] | a. | 1) 当前的，现在的，现时发生的 2) 通用的，流通的，流行的 |
| scale [skeil] | n. | 1) 刻度 2) 程度，范围 |
2.
句子成分分析：
["According to the calculations (of relevant research institutions)], if China, the EU and other countries were to retaliate [in kind] [against the US tax increase], || [then] US exports would fall [by 23.9%] || and GDP would fall [by 3.4%]."
句子语法结构详解：
* if 为连词，引导条件状语从句。
* be to do sth. 结构表达将来时态。表示按计划或安排将发生的事，意为“将（要）”，或表示要求做的事，意为“（不）得”“(不)准”。
* retaliate 为谓语，采用虚拟语气。
* then 开头为陈述句。
* 第1个 fall 为谓语，采用一般过去将来时。
* 第2个 and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* 第2个 fall 为谓语，采用一般过去将来时。
* would 为情态动词。us 为人称代词宾格。the 为定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Phrase:
| according to | 根据，据（某人）所述 |
| in kind | 1) 以同样的方式 2) 以实物支付, 以货代款 |
Vocabulary:
| calculation [,kælkju'leiʃәn] | n. | 1) 计算 2) 预测，推测 |
| relevant ['relivәnt] | a. | 1) 有价值的，有意义的 2) 紧密相关的，切题的 |
| research [ri'sә:tʃ] | n. | 研究，调查，探索 |
| institution [,insti'tju:ʃәn] | n. | 1) （大学、银行等规模大的）机构 2) 慈善机构，社会福利机构 |
| if [if] | conj. | 1) 如果, 倘若 2) 是否 |
| China ['tʃainә] | n. | 中国 |
| and [ænd] | conj. | 1) 和, 与, 同, 并 2) 然后，接着 |
| other ['ʌðә] | a. | 1) 其他的, 另外的, 其余的 2) 另一 |
| country ['kʌntri] | n. | 1) 国家 2) 乡村 |
| retaliate [ri'tælieit] | vi. | 报复，反击，复仇 |
| against [ә'geinst] | prep. | 1) 反对, 逆着 2) 靠，碰; 倚; 撞 |
| US [ʌs] | abbr | ( = United States) 美国 |
| tax [tæks] | n. | 税，税款 |
| increase ['iŋkriːs] | n. | 增长，增多，增加 |
| then [ðen] | ad. | 1) 那么 2) 那时,这时, 当时 |
| export ['ekspɔ:t] | n. | 1) 出口，输出 2) 出口产品 |
| fall [fɔ:l] | vi. | 1) 落下，跌落 2) 倒下，倒塌 |
| vi. | 1) 落下，跌落 2) 倒下，倒塌 | |
| GDP | n. | 国内生产总值（全写为gross domestic product） |
3.
句子成分分析：
[According to the latest data released [by the US Treasury Department]], the total national debt (of the United States) has exceeded 36 trillion dollars [for the first time], reaching a new record high.
句子语法结构详解：
(latest 为 late 的最高级形式)
* released 为过去分词，作后置定语。
* exceeded 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* reaching 为现在分词，作状语。
* us 为人称代词宾格。has 为助动词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Phrase:
| according to | 根据，据（某人）所述 |
| national debt | 国债 |
| the United States | 美国 |
| for the first time | 第一次， 首次，初次 |
Vocabulary:
| late [leit] | a. | 1) (latest)最新的，最近的 2) 晚的，迟的 |
| data ['deitә] | n. | 数据；资料，材料 |
| release [ri'li:s] | vt. | 1) 释放，放出，放走 2) 放开，松开，使自由移动（或飞翔、降落等） |
| US [ʌs] | abbr | ( = United States) 美国 |
| treasury ['treʒәri] | n. | 1) （the Treasury）（英国、美国和一些其他国家的）财政部 2) （城堡等中的）金银财宝库，宝库 |
| department [di'pɑ:tmәnt] | n. | 部门，处，系，局，司 |
| total ['tәutl] | a. | 1) 总的，总计的，全体的，全部的 2) 完全的，彻底的，包括一切的 |
| exceed [ik'si:d] | vt. | 1) 超过（数量） 2) 超越（法律、命令等）的限制 |
| dollar ['dɔlә] | n. | 美元, 元(加、澳等国货币单位) |
| reach [ri:tʃ] | vt. | 1) 达到,提升到,进入(新水平/阶段) 2) 到达, 抵达（某地,某点位） |
| new [nju:] | a. | 1) 新的，刚出现的，新近推出的 2) （the new）新东西，新事物 |
| record [i'rekɔːd] | n. | 1) 记录，记载 2) 唱片 |
| high [hai] | n. | 1) 最高水平 2) 反气旋，高气压区 |
4.
句子成分分析：
[According to the Federal Budget Accountability Board, <an independent research group>], Trump's plan would add $7.5 trillion to government debt [over 10 years] [under a mid-cost estimate, and $15.15 trillion] [in a worst-case scenario].
句子语法结构详解：
* an independent research group 为同位语
* add 为谓语，采用一般过去将来时。
* would 为情态动词。Trump's 为名词所有格。the 为定冠词。a/an 为不定冠词。
句子相关词汇解释：
Phrase:
| according to | 根据，据（某人）所述 |
| add...to... | 把...(添)加到... |
Vocabulary:
| federal ['fedәrәl] | a. | 1) 联邦制的 2) （尤指美国联邦制下的）联邦政府的 |
| budget ['bʌdʒit] | a. | （用于广告等）价格低廉的，花钱少的 |
| accountability [ә,kauntә'biliti] | n. | 负有责任, 可说明性 |
| board [bɔ:d] | n. | 1) （旅馆、招待所等提供的）伙食，膳食，膳食费用 2) 板，（尤指）木板 |
| independent [,indi'pendәnt] | a. | 1) 独立的，自主的，自治的 2) 不相干的人所做的（或提供的），公正的，无偏见的 |
| research [ri'sә:tʃ] | n. | 研究，调查，探索 |
| group [gru:p] | n. | 1) 组，团体，群，批 2) [商]集团 |
| trump [trʌmp] | n. | 1) （某些纸牌游戏的一张）王牌，主牌，将牌 2) (trumps)（某些纸牌游戏的）王牌花色，主牌花色 |
| plan [plæn] | n. | 1) 计划，打算 2) （详细）规划，方案，精心安排 |
| $7.5 | ||
| trillion ['triljәn] | n. | 1) 万亿，兆 2) （a trillion or trillions）大量，无数 |
| government ['gʌvәnmәnt] | n. | 1) 政府 2) 政体 |
| debt [det] | n. | 1) 欠款，债务，借款 2) 负债情况 |
| over ['әuvә] | prep. | 1) 多于，超过 2) 在...上面 |
| year [jiә] | n. | 1) 年 2) 一年时间 |
| under ['ʌndә] | prep. | 1) 在（某年龄）以下 2) 在...下面, 在...下方 |
| estimate ['estimət] | n. | 1) 估价 2) （对规格，数量或成本等的）估计 |
| and [ænd] | conj. | 1) 和, 与, 同, 并 2) 然后，接着 |
| $15.15 | ||
| worst-case | a. | 最坏情况的 |
| scenario [si'nɑ:riәu] | n. | 1) （电影或戏剧的）剧情梗概 2) 设想，方案，预测 |
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