清华大学战略新兴产业研究中心胡麒牧：拼多多等电商西进畅通内循环毛细血管

“通过赋能消费者、市场主体和区域发展，电商在国家推进乡村振兴、西部物流建设中扮演了非常重要的角色。”11月15日，在由中国经营报社、中经传媒智库举办的“助力乡村振兴 探索西部农村物流新方向”研讨会上，清华大学战略新兴产业研究中心副主任胡麒牧表示，无论从供应链端、制造端，还是营销网络端，电商都为这些战略落地提供了良好支撑。

以新电商平台拼多多为例，2022年拼多多开始尝试通过中转集运的方式将新疆、西藏、内蒙古、甘肃、宁夏、青海6省纳入包邮区；2023年7月联合第三方物流开始在新疆试点快递进村，推进西部农村“最后一公里”配送；2024年9月拼多多“百亿减免计划”宣布，平台承担中转仓发往西部偏远地区的中转物流费用，随后淘宝、京东等平台纷纷迅速跟进。

在“电商西进”的过程中，为何要在物流上重金投入，如何赋能西部数字化物流建设，电商对物流的补贴何以具有长期可持续性，针对业界关心的一系列问题，胡麒牧进行了深度分析。

电商多重“赋能”

物流业是现代经济社会的“毛细血管”，“毛细血管”健全与畅通与否，既关乎国民经济的运行效率，更关乎全国统一大市场、内外两个大循环的运行效率。

为什么西部始终打不通“毛细血管”， 胡麒牧认为存在多方面原因：基础设施存在短板、规模经济效应不够、消费能力也有待加强。在这样的情况下，很可能出现没有规模经济、电商不布局、商家不生产、消费者不消费的僵局。而破局的重要办法之一，就是交给市场，让电商踢出临门一脚。

在胡麒牧看来，电商赋能物流，不仅要赋能作为市场主体的小微企业，消费者、企业、产业以及地区也包括在内。无论从供应链端，制造端，还是营销网络端，电商都扮演了重要的赋能角色。

首先是赋能消费者，做好西部电商、乡村电商，提升消费者购物体验。其次赋能市场主体，尤其是大量中小微企业，他们没有能力建设车队、物流配送体系，只能交给第三方电商平台。物流系统逐步完善对中西部发展具有划时代意义，例如，农产品的销售半径得以颠覆式扩张，当地的一些薄弱产业赢得了更大的市场空间。

此外，电商赋能区域发展。推进“毛细血管”通畅的过程中，推动消费、产业发展，最终拉动西部地区GDP提升。区域经济实现正向循环，就有更多财政资源为本地发展做更多事情，而不再更多依赖东部支援和中央的转移支付。

在推进落地的过程中，电商具体如何赋能：一是为市场提供基础设施。除了国家层面，包括国资央企建设的国有仓储配送体系之外，电商平台也通过建设、租赁，为市场提供包括仓储物流、网络接入、商家平台运营等市场基础设施。

二是精准对接市场，平台经济沉淀了大规模活跃用户，为平台商家提供了客户基数，通过智能算法做精准匹配，帮助商家落地有效订单；在消费者端，则提高了消费意愿和能力，用户购买商品更便捷、通过消费补贴实现商品快速流转、去库存；通过直播电商，销售端和用户也实现了实时互动，大幅度降低了创业成本。

“从供应链角度看，电商还帮助企业大幅降低了供应链成本。通过大数据算法，供应链更柔性。尤其是通过数字技术的应用畅通整个生态全链路信号传导，实现全流程可追溯，一方面提升违约和违规成本，客观构建起诚信商业环境，打造商业生态命运共同体；另一方面当面临经济波动时，整个生态可以同步调整产能、补贴消费者，共同寻找生存之道。” 胡麒牧进一步指出。

物流降本增效

通过电商平台如何实现物流降本增效，胡麒牧也给出了一些具体建议。第一是技术进步。数字技术的使用，以及无人机、无人驾驶车在物流领域的商业化推广，有助大大降低物流成本。

第二是“降本挖潜”：配送企业或者电商平台内部通过管理优化，减少冗余降本挖潜，就有更多资源可以投入到物流供应链体系上，物流配送成本也随之降低。

第三是模式创新。通过数字经济的智能算法，让物流环节上的冗余低效环节消失，以比较合理的负荷状态运行，摊低成本。

第四是短期补贴降低成本。补贴直接目的是降低成本，但电商补贴的目的是为了不补贴，将市场培育起来，形成规模经济后，最终还是按照市场逻辑运行。

“我们目前遇到的一个问题就是当西部地区的规模经济还没有起来，大家不愿意去布局，不愿意完善设施。拼多多目前在做的，比如中转集运，实际上就是自己在培育规模经济，将原本点对点的直达配送重新进行了集约化设计，这其中涉及到设计几个节点，每个节点的投入产出，都要通过大数据进行核算，再通过供应链系统、物流配送系统，逐渐培养规模经济。”

胡麒牧认为，从短期来看，这是通过降低成本，换取市场成长空间。长远来看则是积累先发优势，在农村下沉市场以及西部偏远地区建立平台的品牌忠诚度。

胡麒牧还特别指出，由电商平台先补贴，踢出临门一脚，首先受益的是消费者。购物体验好，购物成本低，消费者就愿意消费。消费带动产业端去库存，从而促进中西部产业的发展。“此外是可持续性，电商在整个规程中需要坚守初心，发挥好生态协同能力、数智化能力，通过智能算力赋能市场主体降本增效。”

翻译：

"By empowering consumers, market players and regional development, e-commerce has played a very important role in the country's efforts to promote rural revitalization and logistics construction in western China." On November 15, at the seminar on "Helping Rural Revitalization to explore the New direction of Western rural Logistics" held by China Business newspaper and China economic media Think Tank, Hu Qimu, deputy director of the Strategic Emerging Industries Research center of Tsinghua University, said that whether from the supply chain end, manufacturing end, or marketing network end, e-commerce has provided good support for the landing of these strategies.

Taking the new e-commerce platform Pinduoduo as an example, in 2022, Pinduoduo began to try to incorporate six provinces of Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai into the free mail zone by means of transit transportation; In July 2023, the joint third-party logistics began to pilot express delivery into villages in Xinjiang to promote the "last kilometer" distribution in western rural areas; In September 2024, Pin-Duo's "10 billion reduction plan" announced that the platform would bear the transit logistics costs of transit warehouses sent to remote areas in the west, and then Taobao, Jingdong and other platforms quickly followed up.

In the process of "e-commerce westward", why should we invest heavily in logistics, how to empower the construction of digital logistics in the west, why the subsidies of e-commerce to logistics have long-term sustainability, Hu Qimu conducted an in-depth analysis of a series of issues concerned by the industry.

E-commerce multiple "empowerment"

The logistics industry is the "capillary" of modern economic society, and whether the "capillary" is sound and smooth or not is related to the operation efficiency of the national economy, but also to the operation efficiency of the national unified big market and the two big cycles inside and outside.

Why the west has always been unable to get through the "capillaries", Hu Qimu believes that there are many reasons: there are shortcomings in infrastructure, insufficient economies of scale, and consumption power needs to be strengthened. In this case, there is likely to be no economies of scale, e-commerce does not layout, businesses do not produce, consumers do not consume the impasse. One of the important ways to break the game is to hand over to the market and let e-commerce kick out the door.

In Hu Qimu's view, e-commerce enables logistics, not only to empower small and micro enterprises as market players, but also consumers, enterprises, industries and regions. Whether from the supply chain end, manufacturing end, or marketing network end, e-commerce has played an important enabling role.

The first is to empower consumers, do a good job in western e-commerce and rural e-commerce, and enhance consumer shopping experience. Secondly, empower market players, especially a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, who do not have the ability to build a fleet of vehicles and logistics distribution systems, and can only be handed over to third-party e-commerce platforms. The gradual improvement of the logistics system has epoch-making significance for the development of the central and western regions. For example, the sales radius of agricultural products has been subversively expanded, and some weak local industries have won a larger market space.

In addition, e-commerce enables regional development. In the process of promoting the unobstructed "capillaries", it will promote the development of consumption and industry, and eventually boost the GDP of the western region. When regional economies achieve positive recycling, they will have more financial resources to do more for local development, instead of relying more on eastern support and transfer payments from the central government.

In the process of promoting the landing, how to empower e-commerce: First, to provide infrastructure for the market. In addition to the national level, including the state-owned warehousing and distribution system built by state-owned central enterprises, e-commerce platforms also provide market infrastructure including warehousing and logistics, network access, and business platform operation through construction and leasing.

The second is accurate docking of the market, the platform economy precipitates large-scale active users, provides a customer base for platform merchants, and makes accurate matching through intelligent algorithms to help merchants land effective orders; On the consumer side, it improves the willingness and ability to consume, makes it more convenient for users to buy goods, and realizes the rapid circulation and destocking of goods through consumption subsidies. Through live e-commerce, the sales end and users also realize real-time interaction, which greatly reduces the start-up cost.

"From a supply chain perspective, e-commerce has also helped companies significantly reduce supply chain costs. With big data algorithms, supply chains are more flexible. In particular, through the application of digital technology, the whole ecological link signal transmission is smooth, and the whole process is traceable. On the one hand, the cost of breach of contract and violation is increased, and the honest business environment is objectively constructed, and the commercial ecological community of destiny is created. On the other hand, when faced with economic fluctuations, the whole ecosystem can adjust production capacity simultaneously, subsidize consumers, and jointly find a way to survive." Hu Qimu further pointed out.

Reduce costs and increase efficiency in logistics

Through the e-commerce platform how to achieve logistics cost reduction and efficiency, Hu Qimu also gave some specific suggestions. The first is technological progress. The use of digital technology, as well as the commercialization of drones and driverless vehicles in the logistics field, has helped greatly reduce logistics costs.

The second is "cost reduction and potential exploitation" : through management optimization within the distribution enterprise or e-commerce platform, more resources can be invested in the logistics supply chain system, and the logistics distribution cost will also be reduced.

The third is model innovation. Through the intelligent algorithm of the digital economy, the redundant and inefficient links on the logistics link are eliminated, and the load state is more reasonable and the cost is spread low.

Fourth, short-term subsidies reduce costs. The direct purpose of subsidies is to reduce costs, but the purpose of e-commerce subsidies is to not subsidize, cultivate the market, form economies of scale, and ultimately operate in accordance with market logic.

"One of the problems we currently encounter is that when the economies of scale in the western region have not yet risen, we are not willing to layout, not willing to improve facilities." What Pinduoduo is currently doing, such as transit and consolidation, is actually cultivating economies of scale by itself, re-designing the original point-to-point direct distribution intensively, which involves the design of several nodes, and the input and output of each node must be accounted for by big data, and then gradually cultivate economies of scale through the supply chain system and logistics distribution system."

Hu Qimu believes that in the short term, this is to reduce costs in exchange for market growth space. In the long run, it is to accumulate first-mover advantages and build platform brand loyalty in rural sinking markets and western remote areas.

Hu Qimu also pointed out in particular that the first subsidy by the e-commerce platform, kicking out the door, the first benefit is the consumer. Good shopping experience, low shopping cost, consumers are willing to spend. Consumption drives the industrial side to destock, thus promoting the development of the Midwest industry. "In addition to sustainability, e-commerce needs to stick to the original intention in the entire regulation, give full play to the ability of ecological coordination and digital intelligence, and empower market players to reduce costs and increase efficiency through intelligent computing power."

句子分析：

1.

句子成分分析：

When regional economies achieve positive recycling, || they will have more financial resources to do more for local development, [instead of relying [more] on eastern support] and transfer payments [from the central government].

句子语法结构详解：

* when 为连词，引导时间状语从句。
* achieve 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* they 开头为陈述句。
* have 为谓语，采用一般将来时。
* to do 为不定式。
* relying 为动名词，作介词宾语。
* transfer 为谓语。
* will 为情态动词。they 为人称代词主格。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

2.

句子成分分析：

The gradual improvement (of the logistics system) has epoch-making significance [for the development (of the central and western regions)].
[For example], the sales radius (of agricultural products) has been [subversively] expanded, || and some weak local industries have won a larger market space.

句子语法结构详解：

(has 为 have 的第三人称单数形式。won 为 win 的过去分词。larger 为 large 的比较级形式)

* 第1个 has 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* 第2个 has 为助动词。
* expanded 为谓语，采用现在完成时和被动语态。
* 第2个 and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* won 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* been, have 为助动词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

3.

句子成分分析：

[Secondly], empower market players, <especially a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises, (who do not have the ability to build a fleet of vehicles and logistics distribution systems)>, and can only be handed over to third-party e-commerce platforms.

句子语法结构详解：

* empower 开头为祈使句。
* empower 为谓语。
* who 为关系代词，引导非限制性定语从句。
* have 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* to build 为不定式。
* handed 为谓语，采用被动语态。
* can 为情态动词。do, be 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

4.

句子成分分析：

Why the west has [always] been unable to get [through the] |"
capillaries"
, Hu Qimu believes | that there are many reasons: there are shortcomings [in infrastructure], insufficient economies (of scale), || and consumption power needs to be strengthened.

句子语法结构详解：

* been 为系动词作谓语，采用现在完成时。
* unable 为形容词作表语。
* to get 为不定式，作状语。
* believes 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* 第1个 there 引导 there be ... 句型, 表示“有”的意思。
* 第1个 are 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* 第2个 there 引导 there be ... 句型, 表示“有”的意思。
* 第2个 are 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* needs 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* to be strengthened 为不定式，作宾语。该不定式采用被动语态。
* has, be 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

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