目前年轻人生育率和房价均在双双下降。

一方面，国家统计局数据显示：2024年2月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.8%，同比下降达到6.3%，北京、上海、广州和深圳分别下降5.3%、6.0%、7.5%和6.1%。

二线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6%，同比下降5.1%。

三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.6，同比降幅同样为5.1%。

另一方面，人口出生率也在下降。2023年全国人口出生率为6.39‰，处于下降的趋势中。2023年年末全国人口，比上年末减少208万人。

可见，生育率和房价双双在下降。现在很多人认为，生育率低主要是因为高房价、高成本所致，所以发出疑问，这种情况国家是“保楼市”还是“保生育”呢？

其实针对这些问题，国家已经给出了较为明确的方向。总的来说就是：楼市稳定、鼓励生育。

楼市的稳分为两个方面，一方面国家不希望房价再像以样那样暴涨，避免贫富差距拉大，增加居民负担。另一方面同样不希望房价持续下跌，这样会影响经济稳定。

所以过去两年国家在大幅松绑楼市政策，广州、深圳等一线城市已经大幅降低限购。二线城市基本已经取消了限购。在供给端，建立城市房地产融资协调机制，给房企项目提供资金。主要目的就是避免楼市持续下跌。

在稳楼市的同样，国家也在照顾中低收入人群。2023年8月份，国务院常务会议审议通过《关于规划建设保障性住房的指导意见》，该文件提出：尽快补齐保障性住房建设短板，提高保障性住房在住房总供给中的比例。同时，对保障房实施严格的封闭管理，让“市场的归市场，保障的归保障”。

在此背景下，深圳今年将建设筹集保障房10万套（间），让新市民、青年人等群体安心工作、舒心生活。加快建立多主体供给、多渠道保障、租购并举的住房制度。

也是说楼市未来将分为两个市场，一是商品房市场，二是保障房市场。高收入人群可以选择购买商品房，中低人群买不起商品房的就考虑保障房。

总之就是要做到低端有保障中端有支持高端有市场。这样的好处是商品房可以恢复其属性，在市场上自由买卖，价高者得，推动经济持续健康发展。同时中低收入人群也能享受到保障房等保障，满足其基本的居住需求，降低生活成本，对于避免生育率下滑有一定的意义。

其实，当下我认为房价只是影响低生育率的一个方面。最主要原因还在于90后、00后人群生活观念发生了变化。90后比较向往品质生活，不再受传统习俗的约束，生娃不再是必须做的事。因为如果有了娃，不仅需要付出经济成本，还会有大量的时间成本。

新闻译文：

At present, the birth rate and housing prices of young people are both declining.

On the one hand, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in February 2024, the sales prices of second-hand housing in first tier cities decreased by 0.8% month on month and 6.3% year-on-year. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 5.3%, 6.0%, 7.5%, and 6.1% respectively.

The sales price of second-hand residential properties in second tier cities decreased by 0.6% month on month and 5.1% year-on-year.

The sales price of second-hand residential properties in third tier cities decreased by 0.6% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%.

On the other hand, the birth rate is also decreasing. The national birth rate in 2023 is 6.39 ‰, showing a downward trend. At the end of 2023, the national population decreased by 2.08 million compared to the end of the previous year.

It can be seen that both the birth rate and housing prices are declining. Many people now believe that the low birth rate is mainly due to high housing prices and high costs, so they question whether the country is "protecting the real estate market" or "protecting childbirth" in this situation?

In fact, the country has provided a relatively clear direction for these issues. Overall, it means: stable real estate market and encouraging childbirth.

The stability of the real estate market can be divided into two aspects. On the one hand, the country does not want housing prices to skyrocket like before, in order to avoid widening the wealth gap and increasing the burden on residents. On the other hand, we also do not want housing prices to continue to decline, as this will affect economic stability.

So in the past two years, the country has significantly relaxed its real estate policies, and first tier cities such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen have significantly reduced purchase restrictions. Second tier cities have basically lifted purchase restrictions. On the supply side, establish a coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing to provide funding for real estate projects. The main purpose is to avoid a sustained decline in the real estate market.

In stabilizing the real estate market, the government is also taking care of middle and low-income groups. In August 2023, the Executive Meeting of the State Council approved the Guiding Opinions on Planning and Constructing Affordable Housing, which proposed to quickly fill the gaps in the construction of affordable housing and increase the proportion of affordable housing in the total housing supply. At the same time, strict closed management will be implemented for affordable housing, ensuring that the market belongs to the market and the guarantee belongs to the guarantee.

In this context, Shenzhen will build and raise 100000 affordable housing units this year, allowing new citizens, young people and other groups to work and live comfortably. Accelerate the establishment of a housing system with multi subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and simultaneous rental and purchase.

That is to say, the real estate market will be divided into two markets in the future: the commodity housing market and the affordable housing market. High income individuals can choose to purchase commercial housing, while middle and low income individuals who cannot afford commercial housing should consider affordable housing.

In short, it is necessary to ensure that the low-end has security, the mid-end has support, and the high-end has a market. The advantage of this is that commercial housing can restore its attributes, be freely bought and sold in the market, and those with higher prices can receive it, promoting sustained and healthy economic development. At the same time, middle and low-income groups can also enjoy affordable housing and other guarantees, meeting their basic housing needs, reducing living costs, and having certain significance in avoiding a decline in fertility rates.

Actually, currently I believe that housing prices are only one aspect that affects low fertility rates. The main reason is that the lifestyle concepts of the post-90s and post-2000s have changed. The post-90s generation yearns for a quality life and is no longer constrained by traditional customs. Giving birth is no longer a mandatory task. Because having a child not only incurs economic costs, but also a significant time cost.

重点词汇

• 年轻人 young people ; youngster ; kid ; young one ; yoof ; a man young in years

• 一方面 one side ; for one thing ; on the one hand..., on the other hand ; for one thing..., for another

• 国家统计局 National Bureau of Statistics ; State Statistical Bureau

• 数据显示 data display ; data suggest ; data presentation

• 一线城市 first-tier city ; the first tier city

• 销售价格 selling price

• 二线城市 second-tier city

• 另一方面 on the other hand ; the other side of the shield

• 人口出生率 birth rate ; fertility rate

• 出生率 birth rate ; birthrate ; natality

句子成分分析：

That is to say, || the real estate market will be divided into two markets [in the future]: the commodity housing market 

and the affordable housing market.

句子语法结构详解：

* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* to say 为不定式，作表语。
* 第1个 the 开头为陈述句。
* divided 为谓语，采用一般将来时和被动语态。
* will 为情态动词。that 为指示代词。be 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子成分分析：

Accelerate the establishment (of a housing system) [with multi subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and 

simultaneous rental and purchase].

句子语法结构详解：

* 本句为祈使句。
* accelerate 为谓语。
* the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Vocabulary:

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