国际货币基金组织下调明年全球经济增长预期至2.9%

The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global economic growth next year to 2.9%

一、中文原文

中新社华盛顿10月10日电 (记者 沙晗汀)国际货币基金组织(IMF)当地时间10日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，预计2023年全球经济将增长3.0%，2024年将增长2.9%，2024年增速较今年7月预测值下调了0.1个百分点。

　　报告显示，当前全球经济继续从新冠疫情和乌克兰危机中复苏，但复苏进程仍然缓慢且不均衡。尽管全球经济在今年早些时候展现出了韧性，但经济活动仍不及疫情前水平，各国分化趋势日益扩大。

　　报告预计，全球经济增速将从2022年的3.5%放缓至2023年的3.0%和2024年的2.9%，增速均低于3.8%的历史(2000年至2019年)平均水平。

　　具体来看，发达经济体今年预计将增长1.5%，明年预计将增长1.4%，与今年7月预测值持平。美国和欧元区经济预计今年将分别增长2.1%和0.7%，明年将分别增长1.5%和1.2%。新兴市场和发展中经济体今年预计将增长4.0%，明年将增长4.0%，明年增速较7月预测值下调0.1个百分点。中国经济预计今年将增长5.0%，明年预计增长4.2%。

　　IMF预计，随着货币政策收紧，加之国际大宗商品价格下跌，预计全球通胀率将从2022年的8.7%稳步降至2023年的6.9%和2024年的5.8%。总体来看，大多数国家的通胀形势预计到2025年才能回到目标水平。

　　IMF建议，多国已接近其紧缩周期的峰值，不需要进一步收紧；要提高长期经济增速，需通过结构性改革实现，特别是侧重于治理、企业监管和对外部门的改革；多边合作有助于确保所有国家取得更好的增长成果；各国应致力于限制地缘经济割裂、努力恢复对基于规则的多边框架的信任，以提高透明度和政策确定性，帮助促进全球共同繁荣。

                      编辑：谢博韬 责任编辑：刘亮

二、英文译文

China News Agency, Washington, October 10 (reporter Sha Hatting) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook Report on the 10th local time, predicting that the global economy will grow by 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, which is 0.1 percentage point lower than the forecast in July this year.

The report shows that the global economy continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis, but the recovery process remains slow and uneven. While the global economy showed resilience earlier this year, economic activity remains below pre-pandemic levels and countries are increasingly divided.

Global economic growth is projected to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, both below the historical (2000-2019) average of 3.8%.

Specifically, advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.5 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent next year, unchanged from their July forecasts. The US and eurozone economies are expected to grow by 2.1% and 0.7%, respectively, this year, and 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, next year. Emerging market and developing economies are expected to grow by 4.0% this year and 4.0% next year, down 0.1 percentage point from the July forecast. China's economy is expected to grow 5.0% this year and 4.2% next year.

With tighter monetary policy and lower international commodity prices, global inflation is expected to decline steadily from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 6.9 per cent in 2023 and 5.8 per cent in 2024. Overall, inflation in most countries is not expected to return to target until 2025.

The IMF advises that many countries are close to the peak of their tightening cycles and do not need to tighten further; Higher long-term growth will be achieved through structural reforms, with a particular focus on governance, corporate regulation, and the external sector. Multilateral cooperation can help ensure better growth outcomes for all countries; Countries should work to limit geo-economic fragmentation and restore trust in rules-based multilateral frameworks to promote transparency and policy certainty and help promote shared global prosperity.

                 Editor: Xie Botao Editor: Liu Liang

三、重点单词

1.release   释放，发泄

2. global economy    全球经济

3. forecast   预测

4. historical   历史的

5. respectively   各自

6. percentage   百分之

7. steadily  逐步地

8. inflation  通货膨胀

9. structural  结构上的

10. transparency  透明度

四、重点短语

1. continues to do  继续做

He continued to hold the position of monitor 他继续担任班长一职

2. recover from  从…中恢复

The global economy is recovering from the pandemic 全球经济在疫情后开始恢复

3. be expected to  被期望

He was expected to be an excellent person from an early age 他从小被期望成为优秀人才

4. be projected to  被投射到

The light was projected to the floor 这束光被投射到地板上

5. are close to  接近于

The second place is very close to the first place 第二名的成绩已经很接近于第一名

五、一词多义

1.share 熟义：分享，共享。 生义：股份

Share prices moved ahead this morning 股票价格今早上升了

2. point 熟义：点，要点。生义：指，指向

He pointed his finger forward 他用手指向前方

3. remain 熟义：一直是，仍需去做  生义：剩余，遗留

Some problems remain with the technology 一些问题仍遗留在这项技术中

4. advance 熟义：提前  生义：推动，提出（想法或理论）

A new advance has been made in this work 这项工作已经有了新的进展

5.market 熟义：市场  生义：推销

The businessman is marketing his products to me 这个商人在向我推销他的产品

六、同根词

1.late 晚的 lately 近来，不久前

2.local  地方的，局部的 locality 地方

3. slow 低速，缓慢  slowly 缓慢地

4.expected 预料的，预期的 expect 预计

5.shared 分享的，共有的 share 共享

七、近/反义词

1.lower下调  reduce 减少，下调

2.separate  割裂cut apart 割裂

3.inflation 通货膨胀 expansion 通货膨胀

4.below （位置）在……下面 under 在下面

5.project 项目  design 设计

八、难句分析

While the global economy showed resilience earlier this year, economic activity remains below pre-pandemic levels and countries are increasingly divided.

以下是对该句子的分析

1.从属连词：“while”这个词引入了从句并设置了对比或条件,它表示在特定上下文中正在发生某些事情。

2.从属条款：“While the global economy showed resilience earlier this year”该条款提供了有关全球经济表现出弹性的特定时间框架和情况的其他信息。

3.独立条款：“economic activity remains below pre-pandemic levels and countries are increasingly divided.”这是句子的主句，它包含主要信息。

4.“economic activity remains below pre-pandemic levels”：这句话的这一部分指出，经济活动尚未完全恢复，仍处于低于大流行前的水平。“and”（连词）：此连词用于连接列表中的两个独立子句或项目。“countries are increasingly divided”传达了国家在某种程度上变得更加分散或分离。这表明各国之间的分歧越来越大。

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