塔利班一把手大发雷霆，下一个阿萨德在中国邻国？

阿富汗临时政府与最高领导人阿洪扎达之间的分歧，有愈演愈烈的迹象。在最近一次高级别会议上，临时政府几名高层对阿洪扎达明确表示，塔利班现在的政治架构强度，乃至于民间的支持基本盘都受到“严重威胁”，他们对这一情况感到担忧。

结果阿洪扎达大发雷霆，觉得这些话是在针对自己。这场会议很快草草收场，都没怎么讨论重大问题。

【高层警告塔利班基本盘摇摇欲坠，阿洪扎达大发雷霆】

阿洪扎达后来在和别国外交官见面时，还罕见地抱怨说，临时政府有个别高层，试图把所有问题都推到自己肩上。

之所以说这种情况很“罕见”，是因为一般来讲，内部矛盾属于“家丑不可外扬”，即便再怎么尖锐，都会争取内部消化，而不是直接捅给他国的外交人员，更何况做出这种行为的，还是塔利班最高领袖本人。

只不过考虑到这场会议的各种细节，都已经被媒体曝光了个七七八八，塔利班从上到下的口风，并没有外人想象得那么严密。这同样是内部矛盾加剧的一种表现。

阿洪扎达与临时政府高层的矛盾，不是最近才出现，而是已经持续了大半年的时间。高层之间貌合神离，坎大哈与喀布尔两个政治中心渐行渐远，围绕主导权展开明争暗斗。双方倒是意识到问题所在，也尝试过寻找解决方案，但都收效甚微。

【高层警告说，塔利班政治结构的强度，乃至于民间支持，都出了问题】

至于这场会议上出现的风波，我们可以视为两边矛盾又一次阶段性的爆发，如果这种情况再重复几遍，塔利班内部或许将陷入更大的分裂，这里邻国最糟糕的情况，可能就是步叙利亚和阿萨德政权的后尘。

当然，比起短短十几天就全面崩盘的阿萨德政府，阿富汗塔利班无论是所处的地缘政治环境，还是内部的整体政治经济状况，还是要强出不少，但也只是相对而言。

临时政府如果想尽快把“临时”两个字摘掉，与叙利亚“比烂”显然并不可取。

塔利班临时政府如今面临的核心症结，和叙利亚有很多类似的地方，那就是在社会治理以及经济发展等方面存在重大挑战，政权的合法性与能否完成国家重建任务，有非常直接的关联。

要说重建阿富汗，无非是从政治、经济、安全这些议题上着手，首先就是实现包容建政、温和施政，然后就是积极开展反恐活动，从而打通与周边国家开展经贸合作的大动脉。

【塔利班内部山头林立，坎大哈与喀布尔两大政治中心也是貌合神离】

这三个议题环环相扣，缺一不可，任意环节的不作为，都有可能产生连锁反应。而塔利班这几年的表现，很难说达到了周边国家的预期。

比如说对巴基斯坦塔利班这一恐怖组织的暧昧态度，还有塔利班出台的一系列争议颇大的政策，都与临时政府组建之初的对外表态大相径庭。

而且阿洪扎达近期的几道命令，让临时政府很为难，因为这与他们近期的施政方针不符，让临时政府难以与国际社会有效开展互动，执行也不是，不执行也不是。执行了，难免引起更大的争议，可不执行的话，问题只会更严重。

何况塔利班内部本来就山头林立，但凡有一方对最高领袖的指令阳奉阴违，立刻就会产生示范效应。

【临时政府似乎还没搞清自己的地缘政治定位】

而塔利班内部最大的山头，同时也是与阿洪扎达分歧最尖锐的，恰恰是内政部长西拉杰丁、国防部长雅各布这两个兵权在手的实权人物。

这大半年下来，外媒就没少报道关于西拉杰丁等人与阿洪扎达不和的报道。

而这次高级别会议，当面向阿洪扎达警告塔利班基本盘已经“摇摇欲坠”的几个高层，就有西拉杰丁的参与。

只不过在这次会议上，西拉杰丁还没有到撕破脸皮的程度，还是向最高领袖保证，不会违抗他的命令，将“终生服从”，只不过阿洪扎达对此并不买账，反而指责临时政府高层对他“不忠诚”。

由此我们不难发现，塔利班的内部矛盾，已经到了一个非常严重的地步了。很多迹象表明，在组建临时政府的三年后，阿富汗塔利班该如何在内政外交上找准自身定位，位于喀布尔的临时政府，还有长居坎大哈的最高领导层，似乎有截然不同的想法。

【哈卡尼等实权高层，很不满阿洪扎达在坎大哈“发号施令”】

回过头来看，西拉杰丁等高层警告阿洪扎达，说塔利班政治架构强度，乃至于基本盘的支持都在面临威胁，既是在表达不满，可能也是在陈述一个客观事实。喀布尔与坎大哈两个中心的分歧，势必会从上至下地影响到塔利班的整个组织架构。

而阿洪扎达之所以大为光火，可能也是或多或少地意识到，临时政府这边的警告，未必没有一点道理。塔利班如今的困境，自己身为最高领袖难辞其咎，但是阿洪扎达不愿意公开承认这一点。

只是他这种别扭的心态，并不能有效解决塔利班的内部问题，只会进一步加剧分歧，为将来发生的很多事情埋下伏笔。

The Taliban leader is furious, the next Assad in China's neighboring country?

The divergence between the Afghan interim government and the highest leader Ahonzada is showing signs of escalating.

 At a recent high-level meeting, several senior officials of the interim government made it clear to Ahonzada that the current political structure strength of the Taliban, as well as the basic support of the people, are under "serious threat", and they are concerned about this situation.

As a result, Ahongzada was furious and felt that these words were aimed at himself.

 The meeting ended hastily without much discussion of major issues.

Image: High level warns Taliban's basic situation is on the verge of collapse, Ahonzada erupts in anger

Later, when Ahongzada met with foreign diplomats, he rarely complained that there were some high-level officials in the interim government who tried to push all the problems onto their own shoulders.

The reason why this situation is said to be "rare" is because generally speaking, internal conflicts belong to the category of "family secrets cannot be exposed". Even if they are sharp, they will strive for internal digestion instead of directly poking at foreign diplomats, let alone the Taliban's highest leader himself who committed such behavior.

However, considering the various details of this meeting that have already been exposed by the media, the Taliban's tone from top to bottom is not as tight as outsiders imagine.

 This is also a manifestation of the intensification of internal contradictions.

The conflict between Ahongzada and the senior officials of the interim government has not only emerged recently, but has been ongoing for more than half a year.

 The high-level officials appear to be in harmony but are distant from each other, and the political centers of Kandahar and Kabul are gradually moving apart, engaging in open and covert struggles over dominance.

 Both sides are aware of the problem and have tried to find a solution, but with little success.

Image: Senior officials warn that the strength of the Taliban's political structure and even civilian support are problematic

As for the turmoil that occurred at this meeting, we can see it as another stage of conflict between the two sides. If this situation is repeated a few more times, the Taliban may fall into greater division, and the worst situation for neighboring countries here may be to follow in the footsteps of Syria and Assad's regime.

Of course, compared to the Assad government that collapsed completely in just over a dozen days, the Afghan Taliban is much stronger in both the geopolitical environment and the overall political and economic situation internally, but only relatively speaking.

If the interim government wants to remove the word 'temporary' as soon as possible, it is obviously not advisable to compare it with Syria.

The core issue facing the Taliban interim government now is similar to Syria in many aspects, such as significant challenges in social governance and economic development. The legitimacy of the regime is directly related to whether it can complete the task of national reconstruction.

When it comes to rebuilding Afghanistan, it is nothing more than starting from political, economic, and security issues. Firstly, it is to achieve inclusive and moderate governance. Secondly, it is to actively carry out counter-terrorism activities, thereby opening up the main artery for economic and trade cooperation with neighboring countries.

Picture: within the Taliban, there are numerous hills, and the two major political centers of Kandahar and Kabul are also seemingly compatible but distant

These three issues are interrelated and indispensable, and any inaction at any stage may have a chain reaction.

 However, it is difficult to say that the Taliban's performance in recent years has met the expectations of neighboring countries.

For example, the ambiguous attitude towards the Pakistani Taliban terrorist organization, as well as a series of controversial policies introduced by the Taliban, are completely different from the external statements made by the interim government at the beginning of its formation.

Moreover, Ahongzada's recent orders have put the interim government in a difficult position, as they do not align with their recent policy objectives and make it difficult for the interim government to effectively interact with the international community, neither to execute nor not to execute.

 If executed, it will inevitably cause greater controversy, but if not executed, the problem will only become more serious.

Moreover, within the Taliban, there are already numerous strongholds, and any side that obeys the orders of the supreme leader while secretly violating them will immediately have a demonstrative effect.

Image: The interim government seems to have not yet figured out its geopolitical positioning

The largest stronghold within the Taliban, and also the one with the sharpest disagreement with Ahonzada, is precisely the two powerful figures in the hands of Interior Minister Sirajdin and Defense Minister Jacob.

Over the past six months, foreign media have reported on the discord between Sirajedin and others and Ahongzada.

And in this high-level meeting, several high-level officials who warned Ahonzada that the Taliban's basic situation was "on the verge of collapse" had the participation of Sirajdin.

However, at this meeting, Sirajdin had not yet reached the point of tearing his skin, and still assured the Supreme Leader that he would not disobey his orders and would "obey for life". However, Ahongzada did not buy it and instead accused the senior officials of the interim government of being "disloyal" to him.

It is not difficult to see that the internal conflicts within the Taliban have reached a very serious level.

 There are many indications that three years after the formation of the interim government, the Afghan Taliban should find their own positioning in domestic and foreign affairs. The interim government in Kabul and the top leadership residing in Kandahar seem to have completely different ideas.

Image: Haqqani and other high-ranking officials are very dissatisfied with Ahonzada's "orders" in Kandahar

Looking back, senior officials such as Sirajuddin warned Ahonzada that the strength of the Taliban's political structure and even the support of its basic base were under threat, which was both expressing dissatisfaction and possibly stating an objective fact.

 The divergence between Kabul and Kandahar centers will inevitably affect the entire organizational structure of the Taliban from top to bottom.

And the reason why Ahongzada became so angry may also be that he realized to some extent that the warning from the interim government may not be entirely unreasonable.

 The current predicament of the Taliban cannot be shirked as the supreme leader, but Ahonzada is unwilling to publicly admit this.

However, his awkward mentality cannot effectively solve the internal problems of the Taliban, and will only further exacerbate differences, laying the groundwork for many future events.

1.The high-level officials appear to be in harmony but are distant from each other, and the political centers of Kandahar and Kabul are gradually moving apart, engaging in open and covert struggles over dominance.

句子成分分析：

The high-level officials appear to be in harmony but are distant from each other, || and the political centers (of Kandahar and Kabul) are [gradually] moving apart, engaging in open and covert struggles [over dominance].

句子语法结构详解：

* appear 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* to be 为不定式，作状语。
* be 为系动词。
* 第1个 are 为不带 to 的不定式。
* 第1个 are 为系动词。
* distant 为形容词作表语。
* 第1个 and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* 第2个 are 为助动词。
* moving 为谓语，采用现在进行时。
* engaging 为现在分词，作状语。
* each 为相互代词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子相关学习点：

 try to do sth 和 try doing sth 的区别
 现在分词作状语和不定式作状语的区别

2. If this situation is repeated a few more times, the Taliban may fall into greater division, and the worst situation for neighboring countries here may be to follow in the footsteps of Syria and Assad's regime.

句子成分分析：

If this situation is repeated [a few] more times,
the Taliban may fall into greater division, || and the worst situation (for neighboring countries (here)) may be to follow [in the footsteps (of Syria and Assad's regime)].

句子语法结构详解：

(greater 为 great 的比较级形式, worst 为 bad 的最高级形式)

* if 为连词，引导条件状语从句。
* repeated 为谓语，采用一般现在时和被动语态。
* fall 为谓语。
* 第1个 and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* here 为副词作后置定语
* be 为系动词作谓语。
* to follow 为不定式，作表语。
* may 为情态动词。is 为助动词。Assad's 为名词所有格。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

3.For example, the ambiguous attitude towards the Pakistani Taliban terrorist organization, as well as a series of controversial policies introduced by the Taliban, are completely different from the external statements made by the interim government at the beginning of its formation.

句子成分分析：

[For example], the ambiguous attitude (towards the Pakistani Taliban terrorist organization, as well as a series (of controversial policies introduced [by the Taliban]),) are completely different from the external statements made [by the interim government] [at the beginning (of its formation)].

句子语法结构详解：

(made 为 make 的过去分词。)

* introduced 为过去分词，作后置定语。
* are 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* different 为形容词作表语。
* made 为过去分词，作后置定语。
* its 为物主代词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子相关学习点：

 as, when, while 的区别

4.Moreover, Ahongzada's recent orders have put the interim government in a difficult position, as they do not align with their recent policy objectives and make it difficult for the interim government to effectively interact with the international community, neither to execute nor not to execute.

句子成分分析：

[Moreover], Ahongzada's recent | orders have put the interim government in a difficult position, || as they do not align with their recent policy objectives and make it difficult for the interim government to effectively interact with the international community, neither to execute nor not to execute.

句子语法结构详解：

(put 为过去分词，与其动词原形拼写相同。Ahongzada's = Ahongzada is)

* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* 第1个 recent 为形容词作表语。
* orders 开头为宾语从句，引导词 that 被省略。
* put 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* as 为连词，引导状语从句。
* align 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* make 为谓语。
* 第2个 difficult 为形容词作宾语补足语(即构成复合宾语)。
* for the interim government to effectively interact 为不定式，作状语。for the interim government 为不定式的逻辑主语。
* 第1个 to execute 为不定式，作状语。
* 句中含有 neither...nor... 并列结构，意为“……和……都不”；“既不……也不……”。
* not to execute 为不定式否定形式。
* they 为人称代词主格。their 为形容词型物主代词。have, do 为助动词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

句子相关学习点：

 as, when, while 的区别
 现在分词作状语和不定式作状语的区别

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