特朗普欲动用美特种部队让墨西哥贩毒集团“从地球上消失”？专家警告：可能陷入泥潭

美国当选总统特朗普及他新任命的“边境沙皇”汤姆·霍曼可能考虑派遣美军特种部队消灭墨西哥贩毒集团。不过有分析提醒，如果没有墨西哥政府的许可，美军贸然进入墨西哥境内可被认作对一个主权国家的入侵。 美国智库“卡托研究所”专注于国防问题研究的研究员布兰登·巴克警告称，尽管美军特种兵实力很强，但墨西哥贩毒集团的实力也不容小觑。近日，发表在智库官网上的一篇名为《永远不该有的想法：动用美国特种部队打击贩毒集团将是巨大的错误》的文章中，布兰登强调了这一想法的危险性。

“边境沙皇”喊话墨西哥贩毒集团：

“待特朗普重返白宫，你们就完了”

▲霍曼早在4个月前就警告要墨西哥贩毒集团“从地球上消失”

“我要警告墨西哥贩毒集团，你们杀了不少美国人。待特朗普重返白宫后，你们就完了！”据报道，霍曼早在4个月前就威胁要墨西哥贩毒集团“从地球上消失”。在特朗普胜选后，霍曼再次强调：“当选总统特朗普将充分动用美特种部队力量让他们（墨西哥贩毒集团）消失。”

事实上，在美国共和党内，强硬派一直都在讨论美军攻打墨西哥贩毒集团的可能性。除了霍曼，在特朗普的“2.0”团队中，其提名的国防部长、国务卿都支持“向墨西哥部署美军”的想法。

一位匿名知情人士透露，其中有一种可能就是秘密派遣美军特种部队潜入墨西哥，杀掉墨西哥贩毒集团的头目。

▲当时的墨西哥总统洛佩斯强调称，“我们不接受任何形式干预，我们是主权和自由国家”

另据新华社2019年报道，2019年11月4日，9名美国公民在墨西哥北部遭伏击丧生后，时任美国总统特朗普便表示“将把墨西哥贩毒集团列为恐怖组织。”但不久后，特朗普又改变了说法，称“暂时不将墨西哥贩毒集团列为恐怖组织，美墨将加强联手打击贩毒集团。”当时的墨西哥总统洛佩斯强调称，“我们不接受任何形式干预，我们是主权国家。”

专家警告：

直接通过军事手段介入，可能产生新风险

布兰登称，除去法律、政治和外交问题，单从战斗能力上看，墨西哥贩毒集团的打击能力已经较为强大了，“人们忽略了墨西哥贩毒集团武装装备和战斗力量已经大力发展的事实。”

▲墨西哥一贩毒集团展示军事装备

“据视频证据和墨西哥官员所说，墨西哥各大贩毒集团拥有很多军事装备。比如武装无人机、简易爆炸装置、装甲车等。”布兰登说，具有讽刺意味的是，除了装备以外，部分贩毒集团成员曾在墨西哥军队服役并接受了美国特种部队的训练。

针对“派人杀掉贩毒集团高层”这一想法，布兰登认为这一方法“治标不治本”。其质疑称，杀了领导层后要怎么保证他们不会选出新的领导层呢？又有谁能来填补这一权力真空呢？

布兰登警告称，若让美国特种部队对抗贩毒集团，可能会让美特种部队陷入泥潭。“毫无疑问，墨西哥贩毒集团都是非常危险的组织，其给墨西哥公民乃至美国公民带来了痛苦。但若美国直接通过军事手段介入，可能不仅收效甚微，还会产生新风险。”

翻译：

Us President-elect Donald Trump and his newly appointed "border czar" Tom Homan may consider sending US special forces to wipe out Mexican drug cartels. However, some analysts warn that if there is no permission from the Mexican government, the US military rashly enters the territory of Mexico can be regarded as an invasion of a sovereign country. Brandon Buck, a fellow at the Cato Institute, a US think tank that focuses on defense issues, warned that despite the strength of the US special forces, the strength of the Mexican drug cartels cannot be underestimated. In a recent article published on the think tank's website titled "The Idea That Should Never Happen: Using U.S. Special Forces to fight drug cartels would be a huge Mistake," Brandon highlighted the dangers of the idea.

'Border Czar' calls out Mexican drug cartels:

"When Trump returns to the White House, you're done."

Homan warned four months ago that Mexican drug cartels would be "wiped off the face of the Earth."

"I want to warn the Mexican drug cartels, you've killed a lot of Americans. When Trump returns to the White House, you're done!" Homan reportedly threatened to "wipe the Mexican drug cartels off the face of the earth" as early as four months ago. After Trump won the election, Homan stressed again: "President-elect Trump will use the full power of U.S. special forces to make them (Mexican drug cartels) disappear."

In fact, within the Republican Party, hardliners have long discussed the possibility of the US military attacking the Mexican drug cartels. In addition to Homan, in Trump's "2.0" team, his nominated secretary of defense and Secretary of State all support the idea of "deploying U.S. troops to Mexico."

One possibility, according to an anonymous source familiar with the matter, is to secretly send U.S. special forces into Mexico to kill Mexican drug cartel leaders.

The president of Mexico at the time, Lopez Obrador, stressed that "we do not accept any form of intervention, we are a sovereign and free country."

According to Xinhua News agency in 2019, after nine US citizens were killed in an ambush in northern Mexico on November 4, 2019, then-US President Donald Trump said that "Mexican drug cartels will be listed as terrorist organizations." But soon after, Trump changed his statement, saying that "the Mexican drug cartels will not be listed as terrorist organizations for the time being, and the United States and Mexico will strengthen cooperation against drug cartels." "We do not accept any kind of intervention. We are a sovereign state," Lopez Obrador, then president of Mexico, stressed.

Experts warn:

Direct military intervention could create new risks

Brandon said that in addition to legal, political and diplomatic issues, the fighting capacity of the Mexican drug cartels has been relatively strong, "people ignore the fact that the armed equipment and fighting force of the Mexican drug cartels has been greatly developed."

A Mexican drug cartel shows off military equipment

"According to video evidence and Mexican officials, the major drug cartels in Mexico have a lot of military equipment. Such as armed drones, improvised explosive devices, armored vehicles." Brandon said the irony is that in addition to the equipment, some of the cartel members have served in the Mexican army and received training from U.S. special forces.

In response to the idea of "sending people to kill drug cartel leaders", Brandon believes that this approach "treats the symptoms rather than the root cause." How, he asks, can you kill the leaders and ensure that they don't elect new ones? Who can fill this power vacuum?

Brandon warned that pitting U.S. special forces against drug cartels could put them in a quagmire. "There is no doubt that the Mexican drug cartels are very dangerous organizations that cause suffering to the citizens of Mexico and the citizens of the United States. But if the United States intervenes directly through military means, it may not only achieve little, but also create new risks."

句子分析：

1.

句子成分分析：

[According to Xinhua News Agency] [in 2019], after nine US citizens were killed [in an ambush] [in northern Mexico] [on November 4 , 2019], || then-US President Donald Trump said | that "Mexican drug cartels will be listed [as terrorist organizations]."

句子语法结构详解：

(said 为 say 的过去式。)

* after 为连词，引导时间状语从句。
* killed 为谓语，采用一般过去时和被动语态。
* said 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* listed 为谓语，采用一般将来时和被动语态。
* will 为情态动词。us 为人称代词宾格。were, be 为助动词。an 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

2.

句子成分分析：

But [soon after], Trump changed his statement, saying | that "the Mexican drug cartels will not be listed [as terrorist organizations] [for the time being], || and the United States and Mexico will strengthen cooperation [against drug cartels]."

句子语法结构详解：

* changed 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* saying 为现在分词，作状语。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* listed 为谓语，采用一般将来时和被动语态。
* 第1个 and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* strengthen 为谓语，采用一般将来时。
* will 为情态动词。his 为形容词型物主代词。be 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

3.

句子成分分析：

Brandon said | that in addition (to legal, political and diplomatic issues), the fighting capacity (of the Mexican drug cartels) has been relatively strong, "people ignore the fact (that the armed equipment and fighting force (of the Mexican drug cartels) has been [greatly] developed)."

句子语法结构详解：

(said 为 say 的过去式。)

* said 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* 第1个 that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* 第1个 been 为系动词作谓语，采用现在完成时。
* strong 为形容词作表语。
* ignore 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* 第2个 that 为连词，引导同位语从句。
* 第2个 been 为助动词。
* developed 为谓语，采用现在完成时和被动语态。
* has 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

4.

句子成分分析：

Brandon said | the irony is | that [in addition (to the equipment)], some (of the cartel members) have served in the Mexican army and received training from U.S. special forces.

句子语法结构详解：

(said 为 say 的过去式。)

* said 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* 第1个 the 开头为宾语从句，引导词 that 被省略。
* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* that 为连词，引导表语从句。
* served 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* received 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* some 为不定代词。have 为助动词。the 为定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

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