俄国防部：俄防空部队一周内击落10枚美制ATACMS导弹

财联社11月29日电，俄罗斯国防部表示，俄防空部队在一周内击落10枚美制陆军战术导弹系统(ATACMS)导弹。

普京在集体安全条约组织理事会会议小范围会谈上发言

俄罗斯总统普京11月28日在阿斯塔纳举行的集安组织理事会会议上对西方发出警告，俄方已使用100枚导弹打击乌克兰军事设施，以回应美制ATACMS导弹对俄领土的袭击，并称将继续进行“榛树”导弹实战测试。

延伸阅读

代号“榛树”，洲际导弹首现战场，俄乌冲突升级有“核”风险吗？

据央视新闻消息，《乌克兰真理报》当地时间11月21日称，在当天对乌克兰第聂伯罗市的袭击中，俄军首次使用RS-26“边界”洲际弹道导弹进行攻击，打击了第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克的“南方机械制造厂”。路透社表示，这是俄方“首次”在俄乌冲突中使用这种远程导弹。

值得注意的是，如果消息属实，这将是人类历史上第一次在实战中使用洲际导弹。

乌克兰媒体发布的视频截图

乌克兰媒体称，当天俄“边界”洲际弹道导弹携带了6个单独作战部，从发射到抵达乌目标时间不到5分钟。另外，俄军使用的“边界”“匕首”等导弹可以携带核弹头，但俄军并未使用核武器。

一般来说，洲际导弹属于战略性武器，主要作为核威慑力量存在。俄罗斯为什么要使用战略性武器？昨天大众新闻在跟进俄乌局势报道中，分析了俄乌局势升级背后，谁在拱火？俄乌冲突因为美国允许乌克兰使用远程导弹打击俄纵深后，战事发生了新一轮的变化。

首先是乌军在11月19日首次使用美制陆军战术导弹系统（ATACMS）袭击了俄罗斯布良斯克州。首次使用英国提供的“风暴之影”巡航导弹袭击俄境内目标。

11月19日当天，俄罗斯总统普京签署法令，批准了新版俄罗斯核威慑国家基本政策，即“核学说”。法令从签署之日起生效。此举意味着俄罗斯正式降低使用核武器的门槛，也是对“拜登政府允许乌克兰使用美国远程导弹打击俄罗斯本土”消息的回应。这次发射，是对乌克兰的报复。

俄罗斯的回应

当地时间11月21日晚，俄罗斯总统普京发表电话讲话称，11月21日当天，“俄军对乌克兰军工企业进行了联合打击。攻击中俄军测试了没有搭载核弹头、代号‘榛树’的新型中程高超音速导弹”。该导弹能够以10马赫的速度打击目标，目前没有反导系统可以拦截这种类型的导弹。

普京指出，“11月19日和21日，俄罗斯库尔斯克州和布良斯克州的两处军事设施遭西方武器袭击。乌克兰已经开始使用西方制造的武器袭击俄罗斯境内目标。俄罗斯防空系统成功拦截了这些袭击，敌方未能实现预定目标。”

普京表示，“西方导弹袭击俄罗斯后，俄乌冲突具有了全球冲突的性质，局势正在进一步复杂化。如果冲突发生任何形式的升级，俄罗斯将果断采取对等的反击措施，以维护国家安全和主权完整。”

普京强调，“美国于2019年退出《中导条约》是一个错误，长期以来不是俄罗斯而是美国一直在破坏当下的国际安全体系。俄罗斯正在研发中短程导弹，这是为应对美国在欧洲和亚太地区生产和部署此类导弹的计划。俄罗斯未来部署中程导弹的计划将取决于美国及其附庸国的行动。”

俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫当地时间11月21日晚也在社交媒体发布视频，称“这是一次高超音速弹道导弹打击”。

RS-26“边界”洲际弹道导弹

俄军此次发射的RS-26“边界”洲际弹道导弹到底有多厉害？

2013年，时任俄副总理的罗戈津曾强调RS-26“边界”新型洲际导弹是“反导杀手”，无论是现有的，还是未来的反导系统都没有能力拦截其战斗部。

图为RS-26“边界”洲际弹道导弹（资料图）

RS-26导弹战斗部与导弹本身脱离后将沿不可预测的轨迹超音速飞行。俄导弹行业一名消息人士曾透露，RS-26能够携载几枚新型高超音速分导式多弹头，具备高度和航向机动能力。此前这种全新的弹头已经在其他导弹上顺利进行了发射试验。

据悉，RS-26“边界”新型洲际导弹可能使用更换新元件的传统惯性控制系统，保证在导弹发射前及时改变飞行任务，重新分配目标。新导弹和弹头预计都将使用固体燃料火箭发动机，配备主动制导系统。导弹发射重量估计约为60吨或更高，最短射程估计2000公里，最大射程估计在6000公里以上。

俄乌冲突升级是否离“核战争”越来越近？

俄乌冲突的突然升级，造成了全球经济的暗流涌动。根据财联社21日的消息，受俄罗斯发射中程导弹的影响，避险资产明显走高，现货黄金站上2660关口，日内涨幅超过15美元；美元兑日元跌超120点，现报154.20；与此同时，欧元、欧股也有所走低，美国十年期国债收益率稍稍回落至4.39%。

面对如今局势，全世界都在担心局势是否会进行“核升级”。“俄乌问题”央视特约评论员宋晓军表示，现在俄罗斯正好在遭到美国陆军战术导弹系统和英国“风暴之影”打击本土之后，同时公布了自己使用核武器的原则。在这个原则范围内，实际上俄罗斯拥有一定的主动性或者解释权，来解释这两次打击是否触及了俄罗斯使用核武器的红线。从目前的外部环境和未来的预期来看，俄罗斯恐怕不会把这两次打击解释为触动、动用核武器的红线了。现在美国正在进行政府更迭，到明年1月主张谈判解决俄欧冲突的特朗普政府就要上来了。俄罗斯没有必要在这个问题上火上浇油，使得可能迎来的所谓谈判的机遇丧失了。

对方在打击的时候也没有非常高调，而且这种打击的效果，我们看到也没有对战局有颠覆性的改变。所以说对方有可能也是为乌克兰谈判来增加筹码。从这个角度上来看，谈判恐怕是一个比较大的趋势，或者说是一个很大的约束条件。这种约束条件下，俄罗斯简单或者盲目地启动所谓的核武器红线，这个可能性不是太大。现在双方的冲突达到“核升级”程度，恐怕还有一定的距离。

翻译：

On November 29, the Russian Defense Ministry said that Russian air defense forces shot down 10 US-made Army Tactical Missile system (ATACMS) missiles in a week.

Putin spoke at a small meeting of the Council of the Collective security Treaty Organization

Russian president Vladimir Putin warned the West at a meeting of the CSTO Council held in Astana on November 28 that Russia had used 100 missiles to strike Ukrainian military facilities in response to the US-made ATACMS missile attack on Russian territory, and said that it would continue to carry out combat tests of the Hazel missile.

Extended reading

Code-named "Hazel", intercontinental missile first appeared on the battlefield, is there a "nuclear" risk in the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

According to CCTV news, "Ukraine Pravda" said on November 21 local time that in the attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on the same day, the Russian army used the RS-26 "border" intercontinental ballistic missile attack for the first time, hitting the "Southern Machinery factory" in Dnipropetrovsk. Reuters said it was the "first time" Russia had used such a long-range missile in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

It is worth noting that if the news is true, this will be the first time in human history that an ICBM has been used in actual combat.

Screengrab from video released by Ukrainian media

Ukrainian media said that on the same day, the Russian "border" intercontinental ballistic missile carried six separate operations, and the time from the launch to the arrival of the Ukrainian target was less than 5 minutes. In addition, missiles such as the "Border" and "Dagger" used by the Russian military can carry nuclear warheads, but the Russian military has not used nuclear weapons.

Generally speaking, ICBMs are strategic weapons and exist mainly as nuclear deterrents. Why is Russia using strategic weapons? Yesterday, in the report of the mass news following up the situation between Russia and Ukraine, it analyzed who was behind the escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine took a new turn after the United States allowed Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia.

First, on November 19, the Ukrainian Army used the US-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) for the first time to attack the Russian Bryansk region. For the first time, the Storm Shadow cruise missile supplied by the United Kingdom was used to attack targets in Russia.

On November 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving a new version of Russia's basic state policy on nuclear deterrence, or "nuclear doctrine." The decree shall enter into force on the date of its signature. The move means that Russia has officially lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, and it is also a response to the news that the Biden administration has allowed Ukraine to use U.S. long-range missiles to strike the Russian mainland. This launch, it's retaliation against Ukraine.

Russia's response

On the evening of November 21 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a telephone speech that on November 21, the Russian military carried out a joint attack on Ukrainian military enterprises. During the attack, the Russian military tested a new medium-range hypersonic missile code-named Hazel without a nuclear warhead." The missile is capable of hitting targets at Mach 10, and no anti-missile system can intercept this type of missile.

"On November 19 and 21, two military facilities in the Kursk and Bryansk regions of Russia were attacked with Western weapons. Ukraine has begun attacking targets in Russia with Western-made weapons. Russian air defense systems successfully intercepted these attacks and the enemy failed to achieve their intended targets."

Putin said, "After the Western missile attack on Russia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has taken on the character of a global conflict, and the situation is further complicated." In the event of any kind of escalation of the conflict, Russia will resolutely take reciprocal counter-measures in order to safeguard its national security and sovereignty."

"The withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty in 2019 was a mistake and for a long time not Russia but the United States has been undermining the current international security system," Putin said. Russia is developing short - and medium-range missiles in response to U.S. plans to produce and deploy such missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Russia's future plans to deploy intermediate-range missiles will depend on the actions of the United States and its client states."

Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council, also released a video on social media on the evening of November 21 local time, saying that "this is a hypersonic ballistic missile strike."

RS-26 "Border" intercontinental ballistic missile

How powerful is the RS-26 "border" intercontinental ballistic missile launched by the Russian army?

In 2013, Rogozin, then Russian Deputy Prime Minister, stressed that the RS-26 "border" new intercontinental missile is an "anti-missile killer", and that neither existing nor future anti-missile systems are capable of intercepting its warhead.

Pictured is the RS-26 "Boundary" intercontinental ballistic missile (infographic)

The RS-26 missile warhead will be separated from the missile itself and will travel supersonic on an unpredictable trajectory. A source in the Russian missile industry has revealed that the RS-26 can carry several new hypersonic sub-guided multiple warheads, with altitude and course maneuverability. The new warhead has already been successfully launched on other missiles.

It is reported that the RS-26 "boundary" new ICBM may use a traditional inertial control system with new components to ensure that the mission is changed in time before the missile launch and the target is reassigned. Both the new missile and warhead are expected to use solid-fuel rocket engines with active guidance systems. The launch weight of the missile is estimated to be about 60 tons or more, the shortest range is estimated to be 2,000 kilometers, and the maximum range is estimated to be more than 6,000 kilometers.

Is the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine getting closer to "nuclear war"?

The sudden escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has created an undercurrent in the global economy. according to the news of the 21st, affected by the launch of medium-range missiles by Russia, safe-haven assets were significantly higher, spot gold stood at the 2660 mark, an increase of more than $15 per day; Usdjpy down over 120 points at 154.20; Meanwhile, the euro and European stocks were also lower, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note eased slightly to 4.39 percent.

In the face of the current situation, the whole world is worried about whether the situation will be "nuclear escalation". Song Xiaojun, a special commentator on CCTV, said that now Russia has announced its own principles for the use of nuclear weapons just after being attacked by the US Army tactical missile system and the British "Storm shadow" against the mainland. within the framework of this principle, Russia actually has a certain initiative or right of interpretation to explain whether these two strikes have crossed Russia's red line of using nuclear weapons. Judging from the current external environment and future expectations, it is unlikely that Russia will interpret these two strikes as a red line for touching and using nuclear weapons. Now the United States is undergoing a change of government, and in January next year, the Trump administration, which advocates a negotiated solution to the conflict between Russia and Europe, will come. There is no need for Russia to add fuel to the fire on this issue, thereby forfeit the opportunity for so-called negotiations that might arise.

The other side did not have a very high profile at the time of the attack, and the effect of this attack, we can see that there is no subversive change to the war situation. Therefore, it is possible that the other side is also to increase the bargaining chip for Ukraine. From this point of view, negotiation is probably a relatively large trend, or a big constraint. Under such constraints, it is unlikely that Russia will simply or blindly trigger its so-called nuclear red line. There is still a long way to go before the conflict between the two sides reaches the level of "nuclear escalation".

句子分析：

1.

句子成分分析：

Medvedev, <deputy chairman (of the Russian Federal Security Council)>, also released a video on social media [on the evening (of November 21 local time)], saying | that "this is a hypersonic ballistic missile strike."

句子语法结构详解：

(media 为 medium 的复数形式。)

* deputy chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council 为同位语
* released 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* saying 为现在分词，作状语。
* that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* this 为指示代词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

2.

句子成分分析：

"The withdrawal (of the United States (from the INF Treaty (in 2019))) was a mistake || and [for a long time] [not]
Russia
but the United States has been undermining the current international security system," Putin said.

句子语法结构详解：

(said 为 say 的过去式。)

* was 为系动词作谓语，采用一般过去时。
* undermining 为谓语，采用现在完成进行时。
* said 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* has, been 为助动词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

3.

句子成分分析：

On the evening (of November 21 local time),
Russian President Vladimir Putin said [[in a telephone speech]] | that on November 21,
the Russian military
carried out a joint attack [on Ukrainian] military
enterprises.

句子语法结构详解：

(said 为 say 的过去式。)

* said 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* in a telephone speech 为介词短语作状语，被移位到宾语从句之前。
* carried 为谓语，采用一般过去时。
* the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

4.

句子成分分析：

The move means | that Russia has [officially] lowered the threshold [for the use (of nuclear weapons)], || and it is [also] a response (to the news (that the Biden administration has allowed Ukraine to use U.S. long-range missiles to strike the Russian mainland)).

句子语法结构详解：

* means 为谓语，采用一般现在时。动词采用第三人称单数形式。
* 第1个 that 为连词，引导宾语从句。
* lowered 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* and 为并列连词，连接并列句。
* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* 第2个 that 为连词，引导同位语从句。
* allowed 为谓语，采用现在完成时。
* to use 为不定式，作宾语补足语(或称复合宾语)。
* to strike 为不定式，作宾语补足语(或称复合宾语)。
* has 为助动词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

句子相关词汇解释：

Phrase:

Vocabulary:

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