多地「老破小」成交火爆，有不少房源挂牌一天内秒售，释放了哪些信号？将对楼市带来哪些影响？

原文：

这是在消耗市场里最后的那批购买力，类似回光返照，这一波耗材烧完，就彻底芭比Q了。

大家觉得老破小是谁在买？

为什么之前大家不买？

想清楚这两个问题，事情就清晰了。

我们先说第二个问题，为什么之前老破小大家不买。

因为市场的购买力普遍在下降。经济形势不好，收入下跌，甚至被裁员，自由职业者收入也开始下滑，大家不单当期收入下降了，更可怕的是，未来的预期收入也下降了，市场信心自然就下降，大家必然会收缩开支。尤其是买房这种涉及到未来几十年开支的大宗消费，更是慎之又慎。

市场购买力下降会出现什么结果，我们推演一下。

首先，总体上肯定有一批原来的购买力退出市场，这对各个价位段的影响差不多，你就看成整体需求均匀下滑。

第二，各个价格区间的影响也会不同。

本来能买1000万房子的人，现在只能买800万的，OK，800万比1000万也差不太远，这批购买力的购买区间下滑了，但购买力还在。以此类推，大家都下滑，某个价位段承接了上一个价位段的购买力，总体保持平稳。

但有两个价位段有点不同。第一个是豪宅区段，我们假定1000万以上算豪宅（大家可以自己定义，2000万以上才算豪宅也行，不影响推论），那些买豪宅的人，手里可不止只有买房这点钱。有可能是某个人手里握着2个亿，月入200万，但只买一套2000万的房子，那么这个人哪怕收入下降一些，存款损失一些，他买2000万的房子任然绰绰有余，所以大家可以观察一下，各个城市里豪宅的购买力和价格，在这两三年里并没有太大的影响。

第二个区段是老破小。本来可以买200万房子的人，收入下跌了，只能买100万的房子了，这时候看见100万房子是那种样子，很可能就选择先缓缓了，不买了。因为有200万购买力的人，他会认为自己只是暂时遇到了困难，过两年就好了，他不会将就去选择老破小这样的居住体验。租房可以以很小的代价获得比老破小好得多的居住体验。

大家去看看很多行业，都是这样，

顶尖的区段，购买力一直稳定，无惧波动

中间的区段，随着大势波动

最后的区段，一有风吹草动是最容易被抛弃的，本来有更高购买力的人群，哪怕遇到困难影响了预算，也不太愿意去将就购买最低端的产品

汽车，包包，手表，古董，名画，无不如是。富豪哪怕收入下降了，依然是买豪车，这点支出根本不会受到收入的影响。买普通车的人，收入下降了，可能就降一档去买，本来买30万的可能去买20万的。但那些本来预算买比亚迪秦的人群，遇到收入下降，几个人会降档去买奔奔，知豆，QQ？

房子的道理也一样。

好了，既然如此，那这一波老破小的成交增量是哪来的？就是新政降了首付带来的。

降低首付，降低了上车门槛，一些原来连老破小都够不上的人，抓住这个机会上车了。

但这一批购买力的释放，

一来极其危险，随时可能暴雷，因为他们是高杠杆入市的。本来30%首付，差不多3.3倍杠杆。现在15%的首付，6.6倍杠杆。他们的收入一旦有点波动，很可能就断供了。

二来这批购买力不可持续。这不是经济好转带来的购买力，是涸泽而渔带来的最后一点购买力。用完一波就没了。

这一波楼市的回稳，基础是极其不扎实的，用的手法也是非常危险的加杠杆法，这在中国居民杠杆率已经72%的情况下，还继续加杠杆，那是随时要暴雷的。大家根据自身情况好自为之吧，可别被短期的假象给套路了。

译文：

This is the last batch of purchasing power in the consumer market, similar to a resurgence. After this wave of consumables burns out, Barbie Q is completely gone. Who do you think is buying old and shabby items? Why didn't everyone buy it before? By thinking clearly about these two issues, things will become clear. Let's first talk about the second question, why didn't everyone buy old and broken products before. Because the purchasing power of the market is generally declining. The economic situation is not good, with declining income and even layoffs. The income of freelancers has also begun to decline. Not only has the current income decreased, but what is even more frightening is that the expected future income has also decreased. Market confidence naturally declines, and people will inevitably shrink their expenses. especially when it comes to buying a house, which involves spending for decades to come, it is even more cautious. What will happen if the market purchasing power declines? Let's deduce. Firstly, overall, there must be a group of original purchasing power exiting the market, which has a similar impact on various price ranges. You can consider the overall demand to be uniformly declining. Secondly, the impact of different price ranges will also vary. People who could have bought a house for 10 million yuan can only buy one for 8 million yuan now. OK, 8 million yuan is not much different from 10 million yuan. The purchasing power of this batch has declined, but the purchasing power is still there. By analogy, everyone has declined, and a certain price range has taken over the purchasing power of the previous price range, maintaining overall stability. But there are two price ranges that are slightly different. The first one is the luxury housing section. We assume that a price of over 10 million yuan is considered luxury housing (you can define it yourself, but it doesn't affect the inference). Those who buy luxury housing have more than just the money to buy a house. It is possible that someone holds 200 million yuan and earns 2 million yuan per month, but only buys a 20 million yuan house. Even if their income decreases and their savings are lost, they still have more than enough to buy a 20 million yuan house. Therefore, you can observe that the purchasing power and price of luxury homes in various cities have not had a significant impact in the past two to three years. The second section is old and dilapidated. People who could have bought a house for 2 million yuan now have a decline in income and can only buy a house for 1 million yuan. When they see what a house for 1 million yuan looks like, they are likely to choose to slow down and not buy it. Because people with purchasing power of 2 million will think that they are only temporarily facing difficulties and will be better in two years. They will not settle for a living experience like old and dilapidated. Renting a house can provide a much better living experience at a very small cost than being old and dilapidated. Let's take a look at many industries, and it's like this. In the top tier segment, purchasing power is always stable and there is no fear of fluctuations in the middle segment. In the final segment, when there is a slight change in the overall trend, it is the easiest to be abandoned. People with higher purchasing power, even if they encounter difficulties that affect their budget, are not willing to compromise and buy the lowest end products such as cars, bags, watches, antiques, and paintings. Even if their income decreases, wealthy people still buy luxury cars, and this expenditure is not affected by their income at all. People who buy regular cars may lower their income and go down one gear to buy them. If they originally bought 300000 yuan, they might buy 200000 yuan. But for those who originally had a budget to buy BYD Qin, when their income drops, how many people will downshift to buy Mercedes Benz, Zhidou, QQ? The same goes for houses. Okay, since that's the case, where did this wave of old and small transaction increments come from? It was brought about by the new policy of reducing the down payment. Lowering the down payment and lowering the threshold for getting on the car, some people who used to be unable to even afford old and shabby cars seized this opportunity to get on the car. But the release of this batch of purchasing power is extremely dangerous and could lead to lightning strikes at any time, as they are highly leveraged to enter the market. Originally, 30% down payment was about 3.3 times the leverage. Now there is a 15% down payment and 6.6 times leverage. Once their income fluctuates slightly, it is very likely that they will be cut off. Secondly, this batch of purchasing power is not sustainable. This is not the purchasing power brought about by the economic improvement, but the last point of purchasing power brought about by the drought and fishing. After using one wave, it's gone. The stabilization of this wave of the real estate market has an extremely weak foundation, and the use of leverage is also a very dangerous method. Even with the leverage ratio of Chinese residents already at 72%, continuing to increase leverage would be explosive at any time. Everyone should act on their own according to their own situation, and don't be trapped by short-term illusions.

句子分析1：

People who could have bought a house for 10 million yuan can only buy one for 8 million yuan now. 

句子成分分析：

People (who could have bought a house for 10 million yuan) can only buy one for 8 million yuan [now].

句子语法结构详解：

(bought 为 buy 的过去分词。)

* who 为关系代词，引导定语从句。
* bought 为谓语，采用完成时态。
* buy 为谓语。
* can 为情态动词。have 为助动词。a 为不定冠词。

相关语法知识:
   定语从句
   时态
   情态动词 | 助动词

句子相关词汇解释：

Vocabulary:

句子语法错误检查：

(未发现错误)

句子相关学习点：

 can 与 be able to 的区别
 one 作代词的用法

句子分析2：

The second section is old and dilapidated. People who could have bought a house for 2 million yuan now have a decline in income and can only buy a house for 1 million yuan.

句子成分分析：

The second section is old and dilapidated.
People (who could have bought a house for 2 million yuan) now have a decline [in income] and can only buy a house for 1 million yuan.

句子语法结构详解：

(bought 为 buy 的过去分词。)

* is 为系动词作谓语，采用一般现在时。
* old 为形容词作表语。
* who 为关系代词，引导定语从句。
* 第1个 have 为助动词。
* bought 为谓语，采用完成时态。
* 第2个 have 为谓语，采用一般现在时。
* buy 为谓语。
* can 为情态动词。the 为定冠词。a 为不定冠词。

相关语法知识:
   系动词
   时态
   表语
   并列连词
   定语从句
   情态动词 | 助动词

句子相关词汇解释：

Vocabulary:

句子语法错误检查：

(未发现错误)

句子相关学习点：

 can 与 be able to 的区别

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