一、中文原文
信达证券发布研究报告称，尽管美国经济并未进入NBER界定的衰退期间，但已有多个经济特征显示美国正在经历的不是典型衰退，而是滚动衰退。一是制造业萎缩而服务业有韧性，尤其是制造业和服务业新订单表现的分化。二是劳动力市场中服务业就业强而制造业就业弱。三是经济生产上，投资如期遇冷，而消费仍有韧性。四是制造业、服务业和建筑业都处于周期的不同位置。与典型衰退不同，美国不同部门表现有错位，这轮滚动衰退主要源于居民超额储蓄干扰消费的正常回落节奏。
信达证券主要观点如下：
美国正在经历的不是典型衰退，而是滚动衰退。
尽管美国经济并未进入NBER界定的衰退期间，但已有多个经济特征显示美国正在经历的不是典型衰退，而是滚动衰退。一是制造业萎缩而服务业有韧性，尤其是制造业和服务业新订单表现的分化。二是劳动力市场中服务业就业强而制造业就业弱。三是经济生产上，投资如期遇冷，而消费仍有韧性。四是制造业、服务业和建筑业都处于周期的不同位置。
与典型衰退不同，美国不同部门表现有错位，这轮滚动衰退主要源于居民超额储蓄干扰消费的正常回落节奏。
历史经验显示，滚动衰退下美国经济衰退或不深。
历史来看，这并不是美国第一次出现滚动衰退，早在1960年期间美国也曾出现过滚动衰退，汽车部门产能利用率率先下滑，且幅度大于制造业。对比来看，1960年和当前的美国经济背景有许多相似之处，一是两轮经济均处于经历公共卫生事件之后的时期，二是两轮经济周期都碰上加息周期。
参考1960年时期的经验，滚动衰退下美国经济陷入深度衰退的概率会降低，预计美国将经历一轮浅度衰退。
服务业放缓力度或大于制造业反弹力度。
上半年经济呈现出制造业下滑而服务业有韧性的错位走势，但未来制造业或是触底反弹，而服务业或将触顶回落。制造业或将触底反弹的逻辑有两点，一是美国产业政策继续驱动制造业企业投资上升；二是部分制造业开始补库，企业新订单额也开始上升。
后续美国服务业或将触顶回落，一是超额储蓄即将消耗殆尽，二是居民消费贷款拖欠率超过疫前水平，消费信贷开始弱化背景下，服务业将随超额储蓄消耗触顶回落。尽管制造业将触底回升，但制造业部分补库带来的动力较弱，服务消费回落对经济的影响或占主导，未来美国经济或仍会放缓。
风险因素：
油价上涨超预期；美国货币政策收紧超预期。（责任编辑：郭建）
二、英文译文
Cinda Securities released a research report saying that although the US economy has not entered the recession period defined by the NBER, there are several economic characteristics that show that the US is experiencing not a typical recession, but a rolling recession. First, the contraction of the manufacturing sector and the resilience of the service sector, especially the divergence in the performance of new orders between the manufacturing and service sectors. Second, in the labor market, service employment is strong while manufacturing employment is weak. Third, in terms of economic production, investment has cooled as expected, while consumption remains resilient. Fourth, manufacturing, services and construction are all at different points in the cycle. Unlike a typical recession, the performance of different sectors in the United States is mismatched, and this rolling recession is mainly caused by excessive household savings interfering with the normal pace of consumption decline.
Cinda Securities' main views are as follows:
The US is not experiencing a typical recession, but a rolling one.
Although the U.S. economy is not in a recession as defined by the NBER, there are several economic characteristics that indicate that the United States is experiencing not a typical recession, but a rolling recession. First, the contraction of the manufacturing sector and the resilience of the service sector, especially the divergence in the performance of new orders between the manufacturing and service sectors. Second, in the labor market, service employment is strong while manufacturing employment is weak. Third, in terms of economic production, investment has cooled as expected, while consumption remains resilient. Fourth, manufacturing, services and construction are all at different points in the cycle.
Unlike a typical recession, the performance of different sectors in the United States is mismatched, and this rolling recession is mainly caused by excessive household savings interfering with the normal pace of consumption decline.
History suggests that rolling recessions in the United States may not be deep.
Historically, this is not the first time that the United States has experienced a rolling recession, as it did in 1960, when capacity utilization in the auto sector was the first to decline and was larger than in manufacturing. By contrast, there are many similarities between the 1960 and the current U.S. economic backdrop: both were in the aftermath of a public health event, and both were hit by a rate-hike cycle.
Based on the experience of the 1960 period, the probability of a deep recession in the United States is reduced in a rolling recession, and the United States is expected to experience a shallow recession.
The services sector may slow more than the manufacturing sector rebounds.
In the first half of the year, the economy showed a dislocation of the decline of the manufacturing industry and the resilience of the service industry, but in the future, the manufacturing industry or the bottom of the rebound, while the service industry or the peak will fall. The logic of the manufacturing industry or will bottom out has two points, one is that the US industrial policy continues to drive up investment in manufacturing enterprises; Second, some manufacturing industries began to replenish inventories, and the number of new orders for enterprises also began to rise.
In the future, the service industry in the United States may peak and fall, first, excess savings will be exhausted, second, the delinquency rate of consumer loans will exceed the pre-epidemic level, and consumer credit will begin to weaken in the background, the service industry will peak with excess savings consumption and fall. Although the manufacturing industry will bottom out and pick up, the impetus brought by the partial replenishment of the manufacturing industry is weak, the impact of falling service consumption on the economy may dominate, and the future US economy may still slow down.
Risk factors:
Oil prices rose more than expected; Us monetary policy tightened more than expected. (Managing Editor: Guo Jian)
三、重点单词
research report 研究报告
economic characteristics 经济特征 ; 经济特性
manufacturing sector 制造业
service sector 服务业 ; 服务部门 ; 第三产业 ; 服务专区
new orders 新订单 ; 新订单指数
service sectors 服务业 ; 服务部门 ; 服务行业 ; 服务领域
labor market 劳动力市场；劳务市场；劳工市场
in terms of 在……方面，从……方面 ; 根据，按照 ; 从……角度看 ; 用……的话，用……的字眼 ; 用……的思想方法
as expected 果然；果；果真；果不其然
United States 美国 ; 美利坚合众国 ; 依宪法而联合起来的州的总称
四、重点短语
1. By contrast 相比之下
The new restaurant is bright and modern, by contrast, the old one looks outdated.
新餐厅明亮现代，相比之下，旧餐厅看起来过时了。
2. Both...and... 既......又......
There's a welcome familiarity but also sometimes a slight suspicion that time has changed you both, and thus the relationship.
大家都很熟悉，但有时也会有点怀疑，时间已经改变了你们俩，也改变了你们的关系。
3. Between...and... 在......之间
Second, we can encourage alternative methods of transport both between and within urban areas.
第二，我们可以鼓励在城市内部和城市之间使用替代的交通工具。
4. Base on 基于
This knowledge forms a base on which estimates can be made and risks can be identified.
这些信息构成估计和风险识别的基础。
5. Be expected to 被期望
You'll be expected to replace any broken glasses.
玻璃杯如有损坏，要负责赔偿。
五、难句分析
Historically, this is not the first time that the United States has experienced a rolling recession, as it did in 1960, when capacity utilization in the auto sector was the first to decline and was larger than in manufacturing.
分析：
1. 成分：historically，as it did in 1960为时间状语，this为主语，is not为谓语，the first time为宾语，that引导定语从句，when引导时间状语从句。
2. 词性：rolling为形容词；capacity为名词，修饰utilization；manufacturing为名词。
3. 句型：本句整体是一个复合句。when前面的句子为主系表结构，when引导的句子也是主系表结构，注意in加名词结构往往要从后面往前面翻译。
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